Current situation (July 12, 2025):
- Price: ~0.30–0.31 USD (based on current data).
- Context: TRX is the native token of the Tron blockchain, an L1 platform founded by Justin Sun in 2017. Tron focuses on decentralized applications (dApps), DeFi, NFT, and content (SocialFi, GameFi), with high throughput (2000+ TPS) and low fees. Market capitalization: ~26–27 billion USD (rank ~9–10). Trading volume: ~0.8–1.2 billion USD/24h. Circulating supply: ~86.2 billion TRX, total: ~100 billion. Price has fallen ~30% from ATH (0.44 USD, December 2024), but shows recovery (+2–5% over a week). TVL: ~8–10 billion USD, leader in stablecoins (USDT >80 billion USD).
Technical forecast for 2026 (based on analytics):
- Prices:
- Optimistic: 0.59–1.10 USD (growth of 100–260%) in a bullish market and growth of DeFi/GameFi.
- Neutral: 0.41–0.75 USD (growth of 35–150%).
- Pessimistic: 0.10–0.22 USD in case of correction or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: 0.25–0.28 USD, 0.19–0.22 USD.
- Resistance: 0.34–0.38 USD, 0.45–0.50 USD.
- Trend: Bullish. Daily chart shows an ascending triangle (RSI ~60–70, 20 EMA above 50 EMA). Breakout at 0.34 USD may signal rise to 0.45–0.50 USD, drop below 0.25 USD — correction. MACD is neutral, but 50/200 EMA confirm long-term bullish trend.
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Stablecoins: Tron leads in USDT transactions (>80 billion USD), ahead of Ethereum.
- Ecosystem: 440 million+ transactions, 14 million+ wallets, growth of dApps (SunPump, SunSwap).
- Partnerships: Binance, MEXC, Chainlink, Solana (integration USD1, @justinsuntron).
- Innovations: Reverse merger with Nasdaq, ETF application, Cancun upgrade for Ethereum compatibility.
- Community: Positive on X (@justinsuntron, @milyonerzihin) highlights the growth of JST and meme coins (SUNDOG).
- Deflation: 3.01% annual token burning. Staking gives ~4.39% APY, energy sales — up to 11.2% APY.
- BTC Halving (2024): supports altcoins in 2025–2026.
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC pressure on Justin Sun and potential classification of TRX as a security.
- Competition: Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, Polkadot.
- Volatility: whale manipulation and meme coin speculation.
- Unlocks: potential pressure on price (~100 million USD in 2025).
- Pessimism: CaptainAltcoin predicts a drop to $0 by 2026 due to a weak team and competition.
Recommendation:
- For investors: Buy on corrections to 0.25–0.28 USD, stop below 0.19 USD. Target: 0.50–0.75 USD. Staking (APR ~4–11%) for income.
- For traders: Buy on breakout at 0.34 USD, target 0.45–0.50 USD. Sell below 0.25 USD, target 0.19–0.22 USD.
- Risk: 1–2% deposit due to volatility and regulatory risks.
Risks: Regulation, competition, unlocks, whale manipulation, drop in BTC/ETH.