1. Capital management must be up to par. With 0-100x leverage, losing everything in the short term is inevitable. The risk per trade should generally not exceed 2%-3%; aggressive players may take on 5%-8%. A risk level exceeding 8%-10% could result in a drawdown of 70% during unfavorable periods, and most people's psychological breaking point is around 50%. Strictly enforce capital management.
Many people like to trade with 5x or 10x leverage, operating on higher timeframes above 4 hours. The stop-loss on timeframes above 4 hours generally ranges from 5%-15%, with individual trade risk reaching 25%. Doing so is akin to seeking death. To ensure risk levels are maintained while also using high leverage, the timeframe must be reduced to 1 hour, 15 minutes, or 5 minutes. Fewer players can handle smaller timeframes; generally, 1h-4h is the limit for regular players, while 5-15 minutes is manageable for professional players. Even professional players generally cannot handle the 1-minute timeframe.
2. The trading system must be solid. Developing a trading system requires long-term trading experience. The hallmark of a successful system is clear condition definitions and not trading outside the established patterns. This process requires continuous iteration and experiencing the trials of bull and bear markets. Due to leveraged trading and frequent transactions, one needs to prepare for 90%x9 in tuition. Many people start with hundreds of thousands to play; they need to understand that no matter the starting capital, it only covers one round of tuition, with eight more to go. Therefore, it is essential to start with small amounts; a few hundred or a few thousand is acceptable. Don't increase capital just because you make a profit; take profits out and continue trading with small amounts. Initially, the system and operations won't be particularly refined, and many mistakes and unnecessary actions are unavoidable. Many posts talk about how much they've lost; in my view, such losses are meaningless—they are merely one round of tuition, without even touching the door, and the learning curve hasn't improved, which is no different from gambling.
3. Execution must be up to par. Similar to last year's May 19 incident, betting on the wrong direction can lead to irretrievable losses. Any profits made before such a black swan event are rendered meaningless. Strict stop-losses are essential, and more often than not, liquidations occur from counter-trend bottom fishing, like the recent Luna incident. Do not gamble on low-probability events, and don't fantasize about achieving everything in one go.
4. Time and experience accumulation. A round of bull and bear markets requires familiarity with the market characteristics at different stages and adjusting strategies based on market conditions.
For small retail investors, the time spent in this market is inherently limited, making it difficult to engage in such a specialized market. Here are some suggestions.
1. Use small amounts for trial and error.
2. Keep leverage below 2/3 times and plan finances based on the larger cycle; consider rolling over positions.
3. Trade on 1h, 4h, or daily timeframes for larger cycles.
4. If conditions are insufficient, non-professionals should not engage in contract trading; do not pursue a professional path unless absolutely necessary.
5. Without completing the previous four items, do not invest more than 20,000; treat losses as petty cash that can be disregarded.
In fact, in terms of difficulty, contracts are much harsher than manual trading and spot trading. Do not be misled by the few at the top of the pyramid; they are merely luring retail investors into the market. Everyone knows that for one successful general, countless bones are left in the dust.
I hope for fewer tragedies and more rationality. Light positions, follow the trend, set stop-losses. The above suggestions aim to protect your wallet and prevent you from falling into the pitfalls of gambling. With 2000 in your pocket, why bother with contracts? Even making ten times that in a year only nets you 20,000, which is less than what you can earn from setting up a stall for a month. Many people end up stubbornly pursuing this, and the opportunity cost is significantly higher than other paths. Act according to your conditions and capabilities.
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