Although Bitcoin's price remains stable around high levels, analysts are increasingly focusing attention not on the price, but on the declining dominance market share of Bitcoin – a clear signal that the altcoin season may have begun.

1. Warning from the Dominance Chart: Technical Peak and Trend Reversal Point

A recent post on the social media platform X has attracted attention by analyzing the potential collapse structure in the dominance chart of Bitcoin (BTC.D). According to the analysis:

  • BTC.D peaked at 66% on June 27, 2025, a particularly notable moment marked by the mystical factor "434" coinciding with the new moon – a factor that technical analysts sometimes view as a reversal signal.

  • This 66% level coincides with the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786, which is viewed as a strong reversal zone in technical analysis models.

  • The monthly RSI has reached an all-time high, signaling a state of severe overbought.

  • MACD has crossed downwards, while the histogram has turned negative – both are signals warning of a significant weakening trend.

  • Most notably, the support line extending from 2024 has been broken, a technical event that could lead to a prolonged downward cycle in the BTC.D index.

2. Capital is Shifting: Fundamental Factors Supporting Altcoins

Not only technical signals, but fundamental factors are also driving a strong wave of capital transfer from Bitcoin to altcoins:

  • Spot ETFs for altcoins are on the horizon, such as Spot XRP, Spot Solana, Spot Dogecoin... If approved, these ETFs could create a wave of institutional capital flowing into various altcoins – similar to the effect that the Spot Bitcoin ETF had on BTC.

  • The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in the near future will make money cheaper, and investors tend to seek riskier assets – with altcoins being the ideal choice.

  • The shift in the altcoin/BTC trading pair has emerged, particularly in the XRP/BTC and ETH/BTC pairs.

3. XRP and ETH: The Leading Candidates for the Altcoin Season

XRP/BTC: Resistance zone challenged for the 5th time

  • The XRP/BTC chart is trading right at the critical resistance level of 0.0000215 BTC – a price that has been rejected 4 times before.

  • If XRP successfully breaks this zone, it will trigger a strong technical "breakout," potentially opening a new bullish cycle as capital flows from BTC to XRP.

ETH/BTC: Rounded bottom pattern and signs of recovery

  • The ETH/BTC pair is forming a rounded bottom pattern on the weekly chart, indicating the potential for recovery from a long-term undervaluation.

  • In previous cycles, this pattern has often been the starting point for a strong rally of Ethereum against Bitcoin, and the current signal is repeating a similar pattern.

4. Conclusion: The Altcoin Season May Have Started

The combination of technical analysis (overbought RSI, MACD reversal, support break) and fundamental factors (altcoin ETFs, low interest rates, capital shifts) is creating a perfect scenario for a strong altcoin cycle in 2025.

Bitcoin, as a pioneer, may still hold a central position, but the "digital asset stage" is being prepared for altcoins to step into the spotlight. With XRP, ETH, and Solana leading the trend, investors may be facing an unprecedented opportunity since the 2021 altseason.