Brothers, who would have thought that after the lesson of Coinbase's listing crash, Circle, which prints 'digital dollars,' would bounce back like a firecracker after going public? On June 5, it was listed, and within a month, the stock price soared 190%, with PE peaking at '400 times'. This is not a tech stock; it clearly reflects Wall Street collectively drinking magic water! Water Brother will talk about Circle today 🩵.
1️⃣ What does Circle do? It's a money printer!
Core business: Issuing stablecoin 'USDC'; when users give it $1, it spits out 1 USDC 'digital dollar'. Currently, it holds a 24% market share, firmly seated as the industry's runner-up (the leader is Tether's USDT).
Clever operation: Making money with users' money; the dollars you deposit are turned into 'US Treasury bonds + cash' by Circle, earning interest until their mouth is full of oil! In 2024, interest income alone accounted for '99%' of total revenue; this business beats rental income hands down!
Side business: Managing funds, launched a fund USYC after acquiring Hashnote last year, with a scale of $400 million (about the tip of USDC, Water Brother says: just a sprinkle).
2️⃣ Who is slicing profits? Coinbase!
Circle appears prosperous on the surface but suffers from 'commission assassins' behind the scenes: for every $100 earned, it gives $54 to Coinbase (2024 data). Why share? Because Coinbase is the 'best-selling platform' for USDC! Most users buy USDC through its platform.
Historical origins: In 2018, the two companies jointly opened a 'marriage shop' (Centre Consortium), then Circle bought out the equity, but distribution still relies on Coinbase; it's like doing business with an ex-wife after divorce 😂.
3️⃣ Why is it valued at 400 times PE? Drawing a pie to satisfy hunger!
Current PE ratio is as high as 287 times, profit? Not important! Wall Street is betting on the 'sci-fi future of stablecoins':
- Current: The total market value of global stablecoins is $250 billion (≈ Tencent's market value).
- Future: Will it soar to '$3.7 trillion' by 2030 (a big pie certified by the US government)? What does that mean? Circle's USDC is only $60 billion now; if it captures 25% of the market share... (Water Brother calculates and is shocked).
4️⃣ Is the US government crazy about stablecoins? 'Dollar Hegemony 2.0'!
Why did the government quickly pass the (GENIUS Act) in June to support stablecoins?
- Hidden agenda 1: Let USDC/USDT become the 'bailout' for US debt.
Is the economy going to recession? Is national debt hard to sell? Buy stablecoins! Currently, 80% of USDC reserves are in short-term US treasury bonds, making it a de facto child of the US Treasury.
- Hidden agenda 2: Bypassing banks, spreading dollars globally.
Southeast Asian guys buy coconuts with USDC? An African boss pays for goods with USDT? The dollar is directly penetrating, and the SWIFT system is instantly unemployed!
5️⃣ Circle's Moat: Compliance persona is as stable as an old dog.
Why bet on its success?
- Willing to cling to big players: Cozying up with institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.
- Compliance Maniac: Reserves audited monthly, 10 times more transparent than Tether.
- Infrastructure Maniac: USDC can run on over 20 chains like Ethereum, Solana, SUI, and cross-border transfers are faster than sending WeChat.
Water Brother's summary 💦:
One sentence truth: Circle = the blockchain vestment of US dollar hegemony, Wall Street bets it will issue 'digital dollar wages' globally with a PE of 400 times? The dice are just getting warmed up!
Water Brother's tips 🩵
- Buying Circle stock ≈ betting on 'the dollar always wins.'
- But be careful of Coinbase's commission cutting into Circle's gross margin.
- Advice from Retail Investors: Don't just look at the size of the pie; pay attention to central bank digital currencies (CBDC) that might intercept halfway!
#BTC再创新高 #SUİ #MSGA $BTC $SUI $USDC