Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis

  • Current Price: As of around 10:00 AM on July 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is approximately in the range of $117,455 - $118,000, with an intraday increase of about 5.59%. The 24-hour high reached $118,109, and the low was $116,590.01.

  • Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 71 (greed range), indicating high market sentiment, but short-term overheating risks should be monitored.

  • Technical Indicators:

    • MACD: The histogram remains positive and is gradually lengthening, indicating strong bullish momentum, but the RSI value is above 70, suggesting a possible pullback after a spike.

    • KDJ: Neutral (value 73), with no crossover or death cross signals.

    • Moving Averages: MA10 (10-day moving average) is greater than MA30 (30-day moving average), indicating a short-term upward trend.

  • Support and Resistance:

    • Support Level: $105,883 (near recent lows).

    • Resistance Level: $118,109 (24-hour high), breaking this may challenge the psychological level of $120,000.

  • Market Drivers:

    • Institutional Accumulation: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with cumulative inflows exceeding $50 billion in July.

    • Policy Expectations: The 2025 'Crypto Legislation Week' is approaching, and the market anticipates clarification of the regulatory framework.

    • Macroeconomic Environment: Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, benefiting risk assets (including Bitcoin).

Ethereum (ETH) Analysis

  • Current Price: As of around 10:00 AM on July 12, 2025, the price of Ethereum is approximately in the range of $2,955 - $2,977, with an intraday increase of about 5.85 - 6.29%. The 24-hour high reached $3,027.12, and the low was $2,777.22.

  • Market Sentiment: In line with Bitcoin, market sentiment is positive, but short-term overbought signals need to be monitored.

  • Technical Indicators:

    • MACD: The histogram remains positive but is gradually shortening, indicating weakening bullish momentum, and caution is advised for potential pullback risks.

    • KDJ: Neutral (value 80), close to the overbought range.

    • Moving Averages: MA10 is greater than MA30, indicating a short-term upward trend, but the upward momentum is weakening.

  • Support and Resistance:

    • Support Level: $2,487 (near recent lows).

    • Resistance Level: $3,027.12 (24-hour high), breaking this may challenge the historical high of $3,100.

  • Market Drivers:

    • DeFi and NFT Ecosystem: Ethereum, as a smart contract platform, has its ecosystem activity (such as DeFi locked value and NFT trading volume) directly impacting its price.

    • ETF Inflows: Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with institutional demand supporting the price.

    • Technical Upgrades: The Ethereum 2.0 upgrade is ongoing, enhancing network scalability and security.

Comprehensive Trend Assessment

  • Short-term (1-3 days):

    • Bitcoin: Supported by institutional accumulation and policy expectations, it may continue to challenge $120,000, but caution is advised for potential pullbacks triggered by overbought RSI.

    • Ethereum: Following Bitcoin's fluctuations, if it breaks the $3,027 resistance level, it may further rise to $3,100, but the MACD signal indicates weakening upward momentum.

  • Risk Points:

    • Policy Uncertainty: Progress on global regulatory policies (such as the US CLARITY Act) may trigger market volatility.

    • Technical Resistance: Key psychological levels are $120,000 for Bitcoin and $3,100 for Ethereum; breaking these requires additional capital support.

    • Market Sentiment: The current greed index is high, and short-term overheating may lead to a pullback.


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