Everything was going almost well between Ottawa and Washington. On May 6, Trump warmly welcomed Mark Carney at the White House. Two months later, he sends him a threatening letter, accompanied by an additional 35% tariff. "If Canada cooperates to stop fentanyl, we will consider revising this decision," he stated emphatically.

The measure will take effect on August 1, unless an agreement is signed beforehand. This new tariff adds to the existing ones: 25% on cars, 50% on aluminum and steel, and 50% on copper since August. The Canadian economy, heavily reliant on exports to the United States (68.3% in May), is under pressure.

Trump is also targeting products not covered by the USMCA, which expands the scope of the increases. The rhetoric is firm, but the strategy remains confusing. As summarized by the BBC's economic analyst: the current tariff volatility makes any long-term economic plan nearly impossible.

But in this trade war 2.0, announcements often make more noise than the measures themselves. The Canadian economy remains vulnerable, despite the red lines defined by existing agreements. Trump seems to be playing the bluff card, while maintaining a credible threat.

The belligerent stance also targets Europe and Asia. Twenty countries have received similar letters. The administration postponed the implementation to August 1, leaving a window open for negotiations. In this intimidation game, each country must choose between yielding or crashing into a tariff wall.