🚀 Reasons for the record rise in Bitcoin price
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Bitcoin recently achieved its highest level ever, reaching between $112,000 and $116,000, supported by increasing institutional demand and capital flows through instant Bitcoin ETF funds.
Key factors behind this pace include supportive policies from the Trump administration, momentum from tech stocks like Nvidia, in addition to a weak US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The technical structure is shaped in models like the broken downward channel, and the RSI indicator supporting the upward trend, alongside low trading volume on exchanges, suggesting that investment is happening through ETF funds, rather than active commercial trading.
📉 Indicators and warnings of free fall
1. The 'Three Pushes to a High' pattern
A technical chart indicates the potential end of upward momentum, as the price has risen three times to the upper band of the Bollinger Band, which is a classic signal of a potential severe correction.
2. Sudden contraction in market volatility (30-day implied volatility)
The implied volatility index has reached its lowest levels in 11 months, reflecting a reduction in expected volatility and may indicate a betrayal of investors and preparation for a price reversal.
3. Pattern of negative divergence in weekly charts
Analyst Kevin Capital indicated the emergence of negative indicators similar to those that preceded the previous collapse, warning of a reduction in the strength of the upward trend on the weekly chart.
4. The 'Fear and Greed' index shows previous extreme fear
In April 2025, the index fell below 10, reflecting a peak of fear in the market despite the price being between $80,000 and $85,000 at the time, which is a divergence that reflects a disconnection between price and investment sentiment.
5. On-chain indicators and institutional movements
Long positions in futures increased by about 33%, while short-term traders lost confidence, reflecting a behavioral divergence in the market.
CryptoQuant warns that one of the five indicators of the end of the local market reflects clear saturation now, and may indicate the approaching price peak.
A slowdown in the issuance and trading of Stablecoins, reducing the potential liquidity to support the continued rise.
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🔍 Fundamental indicators for balanced reading
Indicator what does it measure? what does it mean?
Fear & Greed Index market psychology readings < 10 = extreme fear
Bollinger Bands (Pushes pattern) technical trend three peaks = weak momentum
Low implied volatility price movement expectations potential for sudden volatility
Divergence of weekly indicators price momentum comparison to previous collapses
Institutional flows and open interest investor confidence weak gathering from individual traders
Health of Stablecoin indicators liquidity in the market low expansion = risk of stopping the decline
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⚖️ Final assessment: rhetoric in neutrality
Despite the strong rise and institutional entry, technical and psychological signals suggest caution is necessary. There is a possibility of a correction that could reach 4-6% or more towards support areas at $104,000-$107,000 or even near $100,000, in light of a break in fundamental support.
However, there are also encouraging signs, such as institutional encroachment through ETFs and long-term accumulation by large investors, which may support further growth in the future, especially if macro factors (interest rate cuts, weak dollar, regulatory stability) align positively.
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📝 Summary:
1. Bitcoin at its historical peak, driven by institutional demand and ETF funds.
2. A number of technical and behavioral warnings indicate a potential correction.
3. The divergence is clear between institutional optimism and fear of momentary reversal.
4. Accurate assessment and strict risk management remain essential at this stage.