The start of the altcoin season depends on several key signals:

​

​1⃣️ BTC needs to "stabilize". When BTC's volatility drops below 20% and its dominance stays in the 55%-60% range, then there will be confidence to move from BTC to altcoins. Recently, after BTC reached a new high and started to fluctuate, if it can stabilize between 110,000 and 115,000, that will be the first signal.

2⃣️ There needs to be a "leading big brother" to break the deadlock. In previous years, the altcoin season relied on a specific sector to set the pace; in 2021 it was DEFI, and in 2023 it is Layer2.

3⃣️ The money needs to show real results. The balance of USDT/USDC on exchanges has grown for two consecutive weeks, and the number of altcoin wallet addresses has increased by over 15% week-on-week, indicating that retail and small to medium-sized funds are starting to enter the market. Recently, the number of ETH chain transactions has rebounded, which may be a sign of warming up.

4⃣️ The sentiment needs to be hot enough. The Fear and Greed Index breaking 70 into the greed zone, and the discussion volume of altcoins on social platforms increasing by over 50% week-on-week, is when the small-cap coins will take the stage. We are still short of momentum, but the signs are emerging. $BTC $ETH