With institutional funds continuously flowing in and expectations for rate cuts rising, the crypto market is welcoming a new round of explosion. Ethereum (ETH) leads the charge, breaking through key psychological barriers, igniting market enthusiasm, and discussions of 'Altcoin Season' resurface.
The cryptocurrency market has recently been on a roll, witnessing a series of significant upward trends. Driven by landmark events, market sentiment quickly shifted to 'greed.'
Bitcoin continues to be strong, reaching a historical high of $117,548 during the session, currently stabilizing around $115,408 (as of morning of July 11), with a 24-hour increase of nearly 4%.
Ethereum has become the biggest highlight, strongly breaking through the $3,000 mark under multiple positive stimuli, reaching a peak of $3,002, and currently priced at $2,972, with a 24-hour increase of over 5.7%. Its strong performance is seen by some market participants as a 'signal for the start of the bull market.'
Solana and other mainstream altcoins are also rising, currently priced at $162.7, with a rise of about 4%.
The market is warming up across the board, altcoins are collectively agitated.
ETH's strong performance acts as a catalyst, invigorating the long-dormant altcoin market. Among the top 100 crypto assets by market capitalization, several projects recorded double-digit gains:
SUI (+11.7%), ARB (+11.1%), PEPE (+11.2%), PENGU (+26.18%), etc., performed particularly well.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $3.67 trillion. Market trading enthusiasm is high, and the fear and greed index has risen to 71.
The derivatives market is also booming. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $1.078 billion, with shorts suffering heavy losses, accounting for nearly 90% (about $969 million). BTC and ETH are the main contributors to the liquidations, contributing $583 million and $242 million, respectively.
Upward Momentum: Panic recedes, institutions increase positions, rate cuts are on the horizon.
This round of increase is not without a source; the main driving force is clear:
'Tariff Shadows' Fade: The market's panic over recent geopolitical frictions has significantly dissipated, akin to the weakening of the 'wolf is coming' effect, and its impact on the market is far less than before.
Strong Institutional Buying: Bitcoin spot ETF funds continue to flow in net (for five consecutive days). More notably, institutional views are expanding from Bitcoin to mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, with the trend of publicly listed companies allocating to altcoins becoming increasingly evident. Following the Bitcoin ETF, the market is looking forward to the approval of more altcoin ETFs.
Rising Expectations for Rate Cuts: The latest statements from Federal Reserve officials have become a key driver. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly hinted that 'there may be two rate cuts in the fall.' Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, seen as a frontrunner for the next chair, was even more aggressive, stating that 'current interest rates are too high' and calling for consideration of rate cuts at the July meeting, believing that 'policy should be relaxed in a timely manner when inflation is declining.'
Ethereum: From Extremes to Peaks, Leading the Market.
Since the low point in April, the previously extremely bearish ETH has staged an astonishing 'doubling' rebound, even outperforming BTC and SOL. The logic behind its turnaround is clear:
Regulatory Pressure Eases.
Institutional Funds Favorable.
Ethereum Foundation Reforms.
On-chain activity recovery.
Market Confidence Returns.
Some analysts (like LD Capital founder Jack Yi, humorously referred to by the community as 'Boss E') boldly declare that Ethereum breaking through $3,000 marks the 'official start of the crypto bull market' and believe Ethereum's value is severely underestimated. He attributes the driving force of this bull market to the 'widespread application of stablecoins' and the 'rise of tokenization of real-world assets (RWA).'
Challenges Remain: Resistance and Hidden Concerns.
However, ETH's journey is not without obstacles:
Technical Resistance: There is significant selling pressure around the $3,000 mark, and a valid breakthrough still requires building momentum. Technical analysis shows that its key support below is in the $2,750 region.
Foundation Movements: The Ethereum Foundation, recently praised for its reforms, sold 1,210 ETH at an average price of about $2,889 this morning. Its historical record of 'precise top escaping' operations inevitably raises concerns among some investors.
Soul-Searching Question: Will 'Altcoin Season' come true this time?
As a 'barometer' for altcoins, the rise of ETH naturally ignites the market's expectation for 'Altcoin Season'—a phase where altcoins collectively surge and greatly outperform Bitcoin. In this regard, market opinions have shown significant divergence.
'Short Squeeze' Theory Supporter: Trader @degentrading offers a unique perspective. He believes there is an 'unprecedented' phenomenon in the current market: the open interest (OI) in futures for several altcoins exceeds their circulating market value. This means there are a large number of 'naked shorts'—when shorts close their positions, they need to buy the spot, but there aren't enough tokens in the market to accommodate this! He analyzes:
Massive funds are continuously flowing into ETH.
Institutions are competing to acquire ETH through Treasury bonds.
Open interest in altcoin derivatives has reached an all-time high.
The new generation of traders generally holds the consensus that 'altcoins are scams' and are keen on shorting.
Once these massive short positions established at low levels are forced to close, it will trigger a violent 'short squeeze' market, becoming 'structural fuel' for the rise of altcoins. Currently, the total market OI is about $172 billion, with altcoins accounting for $50 billion. This could be the potential ignition point for 'Altcoin Season.'
Cautious Viewpoint: DWF Labs Executive Partner Andrei Grachev holds a different opinion. He anticipates that although the overall market is favorable (driven by the passage of the 'Big and Beautiful Act', seasonal activity in the fourth quarter, and expectations of interest rate cuts), the performance of most altcoins will still lag behind Bitcoin. Opportunities may once again concentrate on Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks.
'Altcoin Season', once a magical term, seems to have become a joke during the long wait, and the market has even lost the courage to imagine it. However, in the current context of Ethereum breaking through strongly, high short positions, and broadened institutional views, will the historical script be rewritten? This time, will it really be different? The market holds its breath.
Final Reminder: Those who lick the hands of the market makers are still eating shit, while those who embrace the tightening have already driven their Lamborghinis over the corpses of liquidations! Follow the tightening quickly! Join the tightening team!!
