Main task update on July 11.
There has been a lot of content about the pump public sale in the past few days, but very few dare to express their opinions clearly. Either they criticize the project party's greed from a justice perspective, or they parrot unimportant details repeatedly.
However, what retail investors really need is not these nonsensical statements from the old guard, but to know whether to participate, how to participate, and how to earn two gold coins from this matter!
Today's main topic will focus on analyzing the actual situation of the pump public sale and my personal analysis, judgments, and participation thoughts.
I. Public Sale Details
1. The pump public sale will start at 8 PM on the 12th, and it will end once all tokens are sold out, at the latest by 8 PM on July 15th.
Trading will open 48-72 hours after the public sale ends.
This point needs attention; many people misinterpret that the public sale shares are locked, which is incorrect. It simply means that there will be a two-day wait after the public sale ends before trading starts.
And not a separate lock-up of certain tokens from the public sale.
2. The project will sell a total of 33% of the tokens, of which 18% is from the previous private placement.
The public sale will sell 15% of the tokens.
Both the public sale and private placement are based on a 4 billion FDV, with a single token price of 0.004.
3. The public sale entry points are multiple partners and the pump official website, with a fundraising target of 600 million USD. All entry quotas are interchangeable, with a maximum single investment limit of 1 million USD.
II. Profit Points and Participation Thoughts
1. The current pre-pump price on Binance is 0.0052. The most basic arbitrage method is to open a short position and then wait for the public sale to start buying an equal amount of tokens, locking in a 30% profit.
2. Since we cannot guarantee that we will be able to grab a quota once the public sale starts, my personal strategy is to open a small naked short position and also engage in swing arbitrage.
Wait for the public sale to start. If there is still a price difference between the pre-market and the public sale, strive to grab the quota and hedge as soon as you get it.
The advantage of this is that the naked short position is relatively small. If the price rises and you cannot grab a quota, you can control losses and increase operational space.
The downside is that hedging later may result in a smaller profit margin.
3. Due to position limits on Binance's pre-contracts, if large players participate as the main force in the public sale for hedging, they are likely to choose hl, while retail investors on CEX are likely to choose Binance for hedging.
Currently, the platforms opening the pump pre-contracts are actually in a semi-offline mode, so if the participating entities are uneven, there will be price differences between platforms. This is a clear arbitrage point, expected to be around 2-5 points.
4. A very important point is that no matter how you operate, do not leverage short positions during the pre-market phase, and try to have sufficient, even multiple times, of margin.
The pre-market is not deep enough, making it easy to get stabbed and killed while shorting.
Protecting the principal is the top priority. If the hedged short position gets killed and then falls all the way down, it basically goes to zero. It must be taken seriously.