The price of Bitcoin has just exceeded $116,000, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the peak of May 2025. However, unlike last time, this rise has strong institutional support.
South Korean company K Wave Media reports that it has acquired 88 bitcoins as part of a larger $1 billion plan for its treasury. The question now is whether this rise in Bitcoin's price can avoid the same fate as the May drop to $98,000? Let's decode the on-chain and chart data.
Decrease in inflows to exchanges: where are the sales?
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin flows to exchanges have decreased to only 32,000 bitcoins per day (at the time of writing), the lowest level since 2015. In December 2024, this figure was around 97,000 bitcoins during the rise in Bitcoin's price to $100,000. This is a significant decrease. Even at this new all-time high, holders are simply not moving their tokens to exchanges; this is a clear sign of low selling pressure and confidence in the asset.
Exchange flows track the number of tokens sent to exchanges, usually for sale. A sharp decline here signals confidence: whales and retail investors do not plan to exit, at least for now. This alone makes the May drop structurally less likely.
Moreover, in an interview with BeInCrypto, Alexander Zakhnd, the interim CEO of Ziliqa, noted that the momentum seems real.
"In the short term, momentum seems real – institutional demand is rising, ETF flows are strong, and companies continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets," Zakhnd told BeInCrypto.
Wallet groups support the price of Bitcoin.
Next, let's talk about support. According to the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator from IntoTheBlock, over 645,000 addresses purchased Bitcoin in the range from $108,795 to $110,624. This is 476.65 thousand bitcoins held near current levels, forming a significant wall of demand. In May, the price collapsed as support zones quickly broke. This time, if Bitcoin remains above this cluster of addresses, it means that short-term buyers are still in profit. This strengthens confidence.
IOMAP indicates the position of past buyers and whether they are in profit (in the money) or in loss (out of the money). When large clusters of addresses overlap with price zones, these areas act as key support or resistance.
RSI divergence indicates "caution," but there is no need to panic yet.
Here lies the risk. While the price of Bitcoin continues to set higher highs, the relative strength index (RSI) shows lower highs — a classic bearish divergence. This can often precede a correction. However, the RSI remains below the overheated level (less than 72), unlike in May when it surged nearly to 80. This is a key difference — divergence exists, but it has not yet reached panic levels. Therefore, a massive correction looks unlikely, but a pullback can be expected.
RSI tracks momentum. Divergence between price and RSI indicates a decrease in confidence. However, since it is not yet overbought, the current upward trend may still have room.
Trend-based Fibonacci levels offer clear targets for growth.
With the return of Bitcoin to price openings (absence of historical reference lines), Fibonacci expansion based on the trend helps to determine potential resistance. From the minimum of $74,543 to the May maximum of $111,980, and considering a pullback to $98,000, we get the following resistance levels:
0.382 at the level of $112,439
0.5 at the level of $116,857
0.618 at the level of $121,274
1.0 at the level of $135,576
The latest jump of Bitcoin to around $116,500 coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci expansion, suggesting that the movement of Bitcoin's price above this resistance level could open the way to $121,000 and $135,000. These levels serve as benchmarks for continuation, but only if momentum is maintained.
Bitcoin is currently surpassing its May maximum, supported by reduced selling pressure, clear institutional purchases, and strong support clusters. The Fibonacci roadmap indicates the possibility of further growth.
However, caution is warranted. A divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) has emerged. If the price loses momentum below $109,632 (one of the key support levels), this breakout could lead to another May pullback, negating the bullish hypothesis. Let's see if Bitcoin can turn this all-time high into a sustainable rally.#Binance #BinanceSquare #bitcoin #BitcoinDunyamiz #crypto