Bitcoin – the leading asset in the crypto market – is creating an impressive breakout story, decisively breaking through two important resistance levels that had hindered short-term upward momentum. With BTC continuing to set new price highs and holding above the $112,000 resistance level, the question is what awaits traders next?
Regarding the market situation, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite just closed trading with record highs for the third time in four sessions, while gold futures also climbed to $3,370 per ounce. Overall, risk assets are rising in unison as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy.
Bitcoin's rally coincides with better-than-expected employment data in the U.S. – non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs in June, compared to an estimate of only 110,000. Although the initially positive data caused BTC to drop below $109,000 due to concerns about the Fed raising interest rates, the market quickly absorbed the selling pressure and pushed prices up to a new local peak.
Institutional participation remains the main driving force. July has seen capital flowing into Bitcoin ETF funds exceed $50 billion. Sustainable buying pressure from institutional investors not only helps BTC hold steady during corrections but also reinforces Bitcoin's role – from a speculative asset to a strategic portfolio allocation tool.
The combination of technical breakouts and institutional accumulation is leading traders to wonder: What will happen next as Bitcoin seems to have overcome the final barrier to enter uncharted price territory.
Bitcoin chart: Two breakout attempts towards the final resistance.
Bitcoin's sharp rise to $113,000 has achieved a new all-time high (ATH) and is a decisive technical breakout from two price-constraining patterns over the past several weeks.
On the 4-hour chart, the breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern is clearly visible, while on the daily frame, the upward momentum is less vigorous with smaller movements.
This is normal in such patterns, but the long candle that just formed has clearly affirmed the trend, leaving almost no doubt about the reliability of the breakout.
The confirmation signals have been clear enough to cause most technical indicators on the short-term timeframe to shift to a bullish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 27 – often seen as a confirming signal that the market is trending. ADX measures the strength of a trend regardless of the direction (up or down) and when it surpasses the 25 threshold, it signals to trend-following traders that a sustainable trend is forming – often leading to systematic buying orders from trend-following strategies.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 75, meaning Bitcoin is in the overbought zone. One can think of the RSI as a thermometer for the market – when the index is too high, it warns that the market will need a 'cooling off' period. In this case, it may imply that prices will undergo a slight correction after the recent strong surge. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has previously recorded higher RSI levels while maintaining stable upward momentum.
The Squeeze Momentum indicator on the daily chart is in the 'off' state, indicating that volatility has been released from a recent compression phase – as previously analyzed technically. This implies that the initial breakout has been completed and now is the time for traders to prepare for one of two scenarios: continuing the trend or consolidating at the current price level.
Overall, prices are emitting many optimistic signals. Although the likelihood of continuing the upward trend is high, a short-term correction will not change the main trend structure, as the current corrective candles only reflect minor fluctuations.
The daily chart also shows a positive technical structure, with several confirming signals that Bitcoin has broken out of the downtrend channel that has constrained it since the peak in May (represented by yellow lines on the chart).
Currently, a bullish support zone is forming (the white line on the chart), based on Bitcoin's daily lows during the April and late June corrections. If confirmed, Bitcoin may oscillate around this support area and maintain its upward momentum, with the $110,000 mark potentially becoming a new support zone by the end of the month.
On the daily chart, the RSI indicator is at 67, indicating healthy upward momentum that has not yet reached the overbought zone (above 70). This suggests there is still room for prices to continue rising. This index shows that buying pressure remains strong but has not reached extreme levels – which often leads to corrections.
The ADX indicator at 12 on the daily chart means the trend is still in the formation stage and not strong enough to confirm a clear pattern – something commonly seen when short-term charts contain a lot of market 'noise'. Although it has not surpassed the 25 threshold – the benchmark for confirming a strong trend, a low ADX level after a breakout is often a sign of calm before a surge. Many traders see this as an accumulation phase before a strong price rally.
Analyzing the moving averages (EMA), Bitcoin is currently trading above both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA across multiple time frames. The widening gap between these two EMA lines (also known as moving average divergence) is often a signal of a strong trend and also acts as dynamic support during price corrections.
Key price levels:
– Nearest support: $110,197 (retest level after breakout).
– Strong support: $105,000 – $108,700 (support line).
– Expected resistance: $115,000 (target measured from the triangle breakout and Fibonacci extension levels).
What will happen next with Bitcoin?
The combination of technical breakouts, institutional cash flow, along with supportive macro conditions is creating a foundation for the possibility of Bitcoin continuing its upward trend past the resistance at the all-time high. However, traders who specialize in technical analysis should monitor the daily ADX indicator to see if it surpasses 25 to confirm the strength of the trend, while also paying attention to RSI divergence signals when Bitcoin fails to make a new peak.
Market traders predict that Myriad is very optimistic about this upward trend. Currently, Myriad users assess the probability that Bitcoin will not drop below $100,000 throughout July at 87%. This is almost a 'sure bet' as the probability of Bitcoin staying above $109,000 by the weekend reaches 90%, with the probability increasing by 40% in just one night.
Similarly, Myriad users are even more confident that Bitcoin will reach the $115,000 mark before it can drop to $95,000, with the probability increasing from 69% to 87% in just the past day.
In the long term, July could still be a time of high volatility for Bitcoin as policies from the Trump administration, including the 'Big Beautiful Bill,' could expand the U.S. budget deficit up to $3.3 trillion – often seen as positive for scarce assets like BTC.
In addition, the deadline of July 22 for the White House report on the executive order related to crypto, along with potential updates on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, is also considered a surprising factor that could strongly influence the market.