Key Takeaways:
ETH surged 13.5% in two days to touch $3,000, but derivatives markets remain neutral.
Ethereum futures premium is modest, and options data suggests balanced positioning.
Layer-2 growth and rising TVL have yet to significantly boost demand for ETH or network fees.
Ethereum (ETH) briefly reclaimed the $3,000 mark on Thursday, capping a 13.5% two-day rally. However, derivatives data suggests that professional traders remain cautiously positioned, showing limited conviction that the uptrend will be sustained.
The Ether monthly futures premium, a key gauge of institutional sentiment, is currently at 5% — hovering between neutral and slightly bearish territory. While this marks an improvement from last week’s 3.5%, it’s still far below levels seen during strong bull phases. The last notable premium spike occurred in January, when ETH was trading above $3,300.
Despite bullish inflows into newly launched U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs, skepticism lingers in derivatives markets. ETH options data also reflects caution, with the 30-day delta skew sitting at -3%, indicating a balance between demand for calls and puts. This suggests that traders are hedging both upside and downside risks rather than leaning into a directional bet.
Layer-2 Growth, But Fee Declines and Weak DEX Volumes Dampen Sentiment
Although Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) has surged from $50 billion to $73 billion over the past three months, the rise has not translated into higher ETH demand. Network fees have dropped 22% to $34.8 million over the past 30 days, reducing ETH’s burn rate and, by extension, its deflationary appeal.
At the same time, decentralized exchange (DEX) activity has slowed, with trading volume on Ethereum DEXs hitting a nine-month low. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s layer-2 networks have collectively processed $58.6 billion in DEX volume, but reduced rollup fees have not significantly boosted demand for ETH as gas.
In contrast, chains like Solana and Tron — despite lower TVL — are generating higher fee revenues, raising questions about Ethereum’s usage efficiency in its current state.
ETF Flows and Institutional Accumulation Support Price—For Now
The recent ETH price rally coincides with $468 million in net inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs over the past four days. Treasury purchases from firms like ShapLink Gaming and Bit Digital have also added upward pressure. However, it remains uncertain whether these inflows mark the start of a longer institutional trend.
While the return to $3,000 is symbolically significant for ETH holders, on-chain data and derivatives positioning suggest the move is being met with cautious optimism, not euphoric momentum. Traders are watching closely to see if spot demand and network activity can justify a sustained move higher, accordingt o Cointelegraph.
