A cryptocurrency frenzy ignited by policy expectations and technological revolution is pushing Ethereum towards its strongest bull market in three years.

Lightning-fast surge! Decoding three core driving forces.

Last night, ETH strongly broke through $3000, with a weekly increase of over 35%, reaching a new high since May 2022. This epic market movement is not coincidental, but rather the result of three engines working together:

Dual-core drive of policy and capital: Trump's administration's 'Digital Asset Strategic Reserve' executive order includes Bitcoin in the national strategic asset framework, leading institutional funds to flood into the crypto market. MicroStrategy launches an $84 billion Bitcoin acquisition plan, Japan's Metaplanet co-invests $53.4 million, while ETH ETF daily inflows hit a quarterly high, and Fundstrat's fund spends $250 million to scoop up ETH, driving its associated stock price to soar by 30 times.

Rate cut expectations ignite market speculation: Fed Governor Waller is viewed as a strong candidate for the next chairman, emphatically stating: 'Policy rates are too high, we should cut rates in July, this is not political!' San Francisco Fed President Daly echoes that 'there may be two rate cuts this year'. Although the June meeting minutes show that most officials are skeptical about tariff inflation, the market has already bet on a policy shift.


$3000 is within reach? Key level analysis for the bulls and bears showdown.

Currently, ETH holds steady above $2950, with the psychological barrier of $3000 just a step away. Effective breakthrough requires attention to three major dimensions:

Favorable resonance: Sufficient breakthrough momentum.

Interest rate cut speculation heats up: Waller and Daly's statements increase the probability of a rate cut in July. If the CPI data on the 15th is below expectations, currently forecasted at 2.8%, the expectation for a September rate cut will soar above 60%, and funds may position themselves in advance.

Institutional holdings normalize: ETH exchange reserves drop below 11%, hitting a three-year low. Deribit option market ETH open interest exceeds $20 billion, with call options accounting for 65%, pain point support has shifted up to $2850.
Technical indicators are strong: Weekly MACD golden cross expands, RSI is at 68 and has not yet reached overbought. If it breaks through the previous high resistance of $2970, a direct path to $3100 will open.


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Risk warning: Beware of three major trend reversal signals.

Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve: Meeting minutes show that only a 'minority' supports a July rate cut, St. Louis Fed President Bullard warns that 'tariff inflation may persist until 2026'. If CPI exceeds expectations, the rate cut logic will instantly reverse.

Technical pullback demand: A top divergence appears on the 4-hour chart, with some short-term profit-taking. A loss of key support may trigger massive unwinding in the options market, and on-chain data shows a liquidity gap below $2850.

Geopolitical policy black swan: The U.S. tariff policy will be postponed to August 1, and if negotiations break down, it could trigger a sell-off in risk assets.

Historical experience indicates: The market always prices in expectations ahead of time, rather than the facts themselves.

$ETH
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