'The market always digests policy expectations in advance. By the time the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates, smart money has already eaten and left the market!' Brothers, that surge in the early morning is the best proof - when Waller and Daly hinted at rate cuts in July and autumn, and even Trump came out to exert pressure, institutions had already rushed to buy BTC, directly hitting 116292 in an hour, leaving latecomer shorts with nothing!

News: The Federal Reserve's collective shift ignites the fuse

Trump roars and exerts pressure: 'Interest rate cuts must be implemented immediately!' Political pressure forces the Federal Reserve to accelerate;

Waller sets the tone for July actions: 'Falling inflation is the core motivation' shattering doubts about 'political interest rate cuts';

Daly's dual interest rate cut forecast: 'At least twice this year, another move in the autumn' completely ignites market frenzy;
(Note: The early morning meeting was actually a confirmation of expectations, prices had already taken off beforehand!)

Technical analysis: Three signals lock in the bullish stronghold

Bollinger Bands build a defensive line: Upper band 117371 becomes a strong resistance today, middle band 113139 serves as a solid support;

Moving averages show aggressive arrangement: MA(5):1159.7 and MA(10):1768.2 golden cross unbroken, supporting the price at a close of 116212;

MACD energy explosion: Histogram value 591.02 continues to expand, DIF(1483.96) and DEA(1188.45) exposure increases, bullish momentum is not exhausted!
(Note: The amplitude of only 0.51% proves the intensification of the bull-bear contest)

Record of short brothers blowing up positions late at night
Our community's Xiao Wang is a living textbook - he opened a short at 115000 last night, betting on the Fed meeting 'expectations falling through', and as a result, a spike hit 116868 in the early morning, with 50,000 USD evaporating instantly. This tragedy of being trapped due to 'betting on news' essentially stems from mistaking K-lines for gambling tools, rather than understanding the market's dynamics.

Emergency guide for position relief (recommended to print and stick on the computer)

Lightly positioned but trapped: Place orders in the 113000-113500 range to add positions, gradually reduce positions above 116000 during rebounds (if adding 20% position, 116500 can break even and escape);

Heavy position risk: Immediately close half of the position to stop loss! Wait for a pullback to 114800, then gradually cut losses at 116000 (holding on may lead to a total loss);

Ultimate mindset: Interest rate cut = good news fully priced in! When the news is all over the internet, it is precisely the best point for taking profits!

Tycoon forecast: Focus on the 116000 crucial battle this afternoon
The Fed's sugar has already been sprinkled, but for BTC to stabilize at 116000, three points must be considered:
1. Whether institutions continue to increase positions after the US stock market opens;
2. The intensity of profit-taking pressure near 117000;
3. Whether there are sudden black swan events (like the SEC suing exchanges)

Tycoon’s viewpoint today

The carnival driven by interest rate cut expectations is still in the first half! But be wary of the pressure zone at the previous high of 117371; if it cannot break through with volume, the short term will fall into a range oscillation of 113139-117371.
Remember: Policy implementation ≠ continued surge, beware of good news being fully priced in leading to a market reversal!$BTC

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