According to Glassnode's report on July 10, the on-chain and derivatives market for Bitcoin (BTC) reflects a state of suppressed volatility and tightening supply — all occurring while Bitcoin prices continuously set new record highs.
The report shows that the Accumulation Trend Score has remained high since June, reflecting stable buying activity from investors, even as prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Shortly after the report was released, Bitcoin surpassed the 112,000 USD mark, entering a new price discovery phase.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around 116,000 USD, after reaching a new historical peak of 116,900 USD.
Long-term investors continue to accumulate
Supply held by long-term holders continues to rise, far exceeding the issuance rate from miners. This indicates a willingness to 'hold on' (HODL) until a clear price trend emerges.
Specifically, addresses holding less than 100 BTC are adding an average of 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the new issuance rate of only 13,400 BTC per month — meaning that most of the new supply is being absorbed into long-term holding wallets.
Realized volatility in the 1 week to 6 month timeframe is currently at its lowest level since December 2022. Only 6% of trading days since then have recorded a narrower 30-day price range than the current one, and only 0.4% for a narrower 60-day range.
This 'multi-timeframe compression' structure indicates that the market is accumulating energy in a 'compressed spring' state, where even a small change in demand can lead to significant price volatility.
Derivatives market and ETF capital flow
Implied volatility at breakeven prices in the options market is decreasing across all time frames, with percentile rankings in the lowest group since the end of 2022.
History shows that when options do not price in strong volatility and market liquidity is low, the market often tends to move strongly in one direction.
Glassnode's Realized Supply Density index reveals that 19% of the Bitcoin supply is within a ±10% range around the current price. This makes small price movements capable of significantly impacting the unrealized profits of a large number of investors, thereby increasing the likelihood of strong trading reactions when prices break out of the accumulation range.
In the US, Bitcoin spot ETF funds are currently managing a record asset block of 137 billion USD, equivalent to 6.4% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization.
Although the net capital flow last week only reached 144 million USD, steady demand has shifted a significant portion of supply into managed investment products. BlackRock's IBIT ETF currently accounts for 55% of total ETF assets and leads in open option contracts, with costs closely aligned with overall market positioning models.
The report concludes that Bitcoin's continuous new highs are occurring in a tight liquidity environment, low actual volatility, and strong on-chain accumulation activity — creating conditions for silent volatility to accumulate across the market while prices remain anchored around record high levels.