#FOMCWatch #FOMCWatch

🔍 The Latest Context

– In its recent meeting (June 17–18), the committee decided to keep the interest rate at 4.25%‑4.50%; the meeting minutes showed a division among members regarding when to cut interest rates, with the market anticipating a potential cut in September and no consensus on a July cut.

– The latest employment data showed an addition of 147,000 jobs in June and a decrease in unemployment to 4.1%, which reduces the likelihood of a rate cut in July.

– The decline in oil prices and moderate inflation led some Federal Reserve members (including Michelle Bowman) to hint at the possibility of a July cut, but the majority lean towards postponing the cut to September.

📈 Market Expectations

– The market expects the monetary policy to remain unchanged in July, with higher odds for the “dovish option” in September.

– Goldman Sachs forecasts indicate a likelihood of starting cuts in September, with reductions of 25 basis points later on.