Unfortunately, Powell has chosen to be selectively "blind" and completely ignores Trump. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 93.3%, while the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 6.7%.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting indicate that there are currently no plans to cut rates, and the Federal Reserve intends to keep rates between 4.25% and 4.5%. Current inflation continues to worry Federal Reserve officials, especially with the impending implementation of reciprocal tariffs on August 1, which could lead to a resurgence in inflation.

Although Trump claims that Powell is worried about things that have not happened, inflation has not shown any excessive rebound, so the question remains why rates are not being cut. However, the Federal Reserve refuses to heed commands, leading to great uncertainty in the financial market regarding the future direction of monetary policy, resulting in intense long and short positioning.

Therefore, the hope for a rate cut in July is slim, which is also a key reason for the repeated fluctuations in BTC. Unless Trump nominates a new Federal Reserve Chair, it is unlikely to trigger a demand for safe-haven assets. In July, BTC is mainly expected to fluctuate at high levels while waiting for the retaliatory tariffs to come into effect on August 1.