I basically didn’t sleep today.. Four hours of sleep time...
Yesterday near 2720 I opened a short position, stopped half of it near 2750, and then added back near 2790, effectively pulling down the cost price of this position to around 2750. Finally, I closed half near 2740, and half near 32. This morning I woke up and looked around, trying to find the reason that pushed yesterday's new high, but in the end, there wasn't anything convincing...
Yesterday, the ETF only saw an inflow of 200 million, which is not considered ETF-driven..
If forced to explain, there’s only the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes (and it did indeed start shortly after the announcement)
But I looked at the minutes, and also sent a quick read... Actually, I can't find anything particularly uplifting for the market.. The main content is already known to the market.. Even if there are 'some attendees' willing to lower interest rates in July such dovish views.. It also mentioned that there are hawkish members who are unwilling to lower interest rates.. Basically consistent with the announced dot plot..
During the day, I placed a short position near Ethereum 2780, with a stop loss near 2815, but I had a premonition that the liquidity above had been cleared, and the weight was too heavy, so it definitely would not continue to push up, this wave would also correct, after hitting the stop loss I immediately posted saying that after hitting my stop loss it should go down, in the meantime I used another medium to long-term account to open a short position, planning to ambush a wave (do not follow)
I opened this position now looking back is still because of a few points: 1. There was no significant positive factor pushing (even now I still feel that yesterday's meeting minutes are not a consensus major positive) 2. The market did not have a suitable pullback trend.. Instead, it went straight up.. So I had to choose to add positions at the upcoming pressure levels to break even.. (2890 added positions short)
So in the judgment between 'strong breakthrough' and 'reverse after large liquidity clearing'... I still need to continue studying the next steps... Currently, there are several ideas, one is to use contract orders (ol), indicators like spot premium to assist in judgment... Let's see if these trading behavior indicators can have different forms in the two cases... The second is to continue working on the pressure level, if it breaks, then take a loss; if it is a liquidity-inserting market, then after inserting, come back to exit after the FVG pullback before re-entering...
Currently, from the order flow perspective.. Bitcoin 112,000 new high has over 100 sell orders hanging on the spot.. The psychological barrier of the previous high, I think it’s not easy to break out into a new range without any major good news..
So the corresponding large sell orders for contracts are at 112,500, and the buy orders below are at 108,500...
Looking at the clearing liquidity, all the short positions accumulated above 110,000 over the past month have been completely cleared... What I mentioned a few days ago about 'last time's massive liquidity, waiting for clearing to pick a side' has already played out.. So either continue to trade above 110,000 for a few days, allowing the bears to continue accumulating liquidity... and then break out again, or if it crashes down to 109,000, then liquidity will move down to 106,000...
So the current thought here.. Today I still plan to hold the short position... The reasons are still what I mentioned earlier: 1. There are no absolute major positive factors. 2. The selling pressure at new highs continues to exist. 3. ETF funds haven't entered the market in large amounts. 4. Yesterday's new high was just a slight break before being pushed back, the buying power was insufficient to strongly break through..
So at this position now.. I feel the chance of going down is a bit higher…
Then let's place an order to run away 50 points above.. Bitcoin 112,500 new high + contract pressure level.. If it can break out here, then I will run away and not hold.
Going down to 108,500 is roughly also an aggressive support level..
Currently, this doesn't consider low longs..
Low long waiting for Bitcoin indicator 106,000...
Currently, the only disadvantage for Ethereum short positions is the exchange rate issue....
