📊 Current Price: $110,991 — near all-time highs, up ~21% YTD ()
📈 All-time high: ~$112,022 on 9 July 2025 ()
📐 Technical Structure
• Trendlines: Ascending trend from mid-June showing higher-lows.
• Support zones: $108,600 (intraday low), $109,000–109,500 genus holding trend.
• Resistance: Upper Bollinger Band and previous peak at $112,000–112,400; further resistance ~ $115,300 on monthly chart.
• Indicators: RSI neutral (~50–60), EMA 20/50/100/200 bullish stack; ADX ~21 indicates healthy trend.
⚙️ Other Technical Tools
• Bollinger Bands: BTC near upper band (~$112.4), suggesting potential short-term consolidation.
• VWAP & EMA cluster: Price above VWAP; bullish EMA alignment enhances trend outlook.
• Volume: Recent breakout above $110K accompanied by increased volume, confirming trend strength.
📰 Macro & Political Drivers
• Fed outlook: Minutes show support for interest rate cuts later this year — positive for risk assets.
• Dollar weakness: USD slightly retreating boosted BTC and tech stocks.
• Tariff concerns: Trump tariff threats raise risk-off sentiment, but BTC remains resilient.
• ETF inflows: Spot ETFs drawing ~$14B+, corporate & institutional flows underpinning market strength.
• Strategic reserve: U.S. government’s BTC reserve program supports “digital gold” narrative.
📉 Price Drivers
1. Profit‑taking after new ATH — led to minor retracement (~$111–112K).
2. Long‑holder accumulation — ARK Invest reports 15-year high in LTH stacks.
3. Global dynamics — trade news (tariffs), tech rally & commodity shifts influencing BTC correlation.
🔮 Forecast
• Next Week: Expect consolidation between $109K–112K. Rally to $114K–115K possible if ETF inflows persist.
• To End of Month: If $112K–112.4K breaks, forecast $115K–120K. Pullback risk to $108K if macro sentiment weakens.
• To End of 2025:
• Base case: $130K–150K — driven by ETF growth and halving dynamics.
• Bullish scenario: $150K–200K — strong macro tailwinds + strategic reserve momentum.
• Bearish risk: $90K–100K — if inflation surprise or liquidity shock strikes.
🧭 Summary & Strategy
• Bullish backdrop: solid trendlines, rising indicators, macro-positive events, & institutional flows.
• Risk zones: key support ~ $109K–110K. Loss invalidates break-through.
• Opportunity: Buy dips near support; average into range; target extension after confirmation of $112.4K resistance breakout.
💡 Bottom Line: Bitcoin remains in a robust uptrend. Watch $112K–112.4K breakout for momentum run to $120K+ in July. Strong year-end potential up to $150K–200K if macro drivers persist, but remain cautious of pullbacks to $108K–109K.