$BTC Summary & Scenarios

Base case: BTC likely trades between $105 K–130 K, with average projections around $110 K–120 K in July.

Bull case: Institutional tailwinds, ETF inflow, and post-halving dynamics could push BTC toward $150 K–200 K.

Bear case: Macro downturns or regulatory shocks may drag it down to $90 K–100 K, per technical analysis and historical patterns.

Key Catalysts by July

ETF inflows: Continued institutional demand remains bullish.

Post-halving cycle: Historically supports summer rally.

Macro factors: Fed’s interest-rate cuts and global stability aid momentum, while geopolitical hiccups (e.g. tariffs, conflicts) could stall gains.

Technical setup: Momentum indicators and CME gaps suggest potential mid-month dips followed by rebounds.

Realistic range for July 2025: $105,000–130,000, with tech models near the upper end (~$116K).

Upside tail: A surge fueled by strong institutional interest could push BTC to $150K+, even $200K in extreme bullish conditions.

Risk window: Look out for consolidation or a correction around $90K–100K, particularly mid-to-late July.