More is still about technique; luck is just temporary. In any case, technique is the most important. Talking about luck means encountering a big player, but otherwise, what matters most is technique! The crypto world is full of opportunities, but also hides risks. Only by continuously learning and maintaining rationality can one ride the waves in the turbulent sea of cryptocurrencies.
My experience sharing:
Learning is fundamental: Understanding blockchain technology, the principles of digital currencies, and market trends is the prerequisite for investment.
Rational investment: Do not follow blindly; invest according to your risk tolerance.
Diversified investment: Do not bet all funds on one project; diversification can reduce risks.
Long-term holding: The digital currency market is highly volatile; holding quality assets long-term is more likely to yield significant returns.
Stay calm: Do not be influenced by market emotions; a calm mind is necessary for making correct decisions.
The stories of becoming rich in the crypto world are certainly enviable, but the risks and efforts behind them cannot be ignored.
Many people go bankrupt not because the coin is bad, but because:
Too much leverage.
Too heavy a position
Too quick to act
Too impatient
I now restrain myself through 'daily check-ins + behavior records + discipline cards' to truly escape the vicious circle of repeated bankruptcies.
We have no insider information, no capital advantage, and no trading experience to withstand several rounds of bull and bear markets. What we can rely on is only to recognize the market, recognize ourselves, establish rules, and control emotions.
The crypto world is not a shortcut to wealth, but a battlefield where only a few survive.
1. First, recognize the market: This is a world where uncertainty reigns.
The essence of the market is not technical games, but a high-complexity probability game.
You must accept that no matter how brilliant the strategy, it cannot consistently profit in all environments. Any trading system claiming '100% win rate' is a scam.
What we can do is not to conquer the market, but to adapt to it, using discipline to combat uncertainty.
Profits and losses come from the same source: How you make money determines how deep your losses are. Heavy positions: may double, may go to zero. High leverage to catch rebounds: get a bite, but if the direction is wrong once, you go bankrupt. Averaging against the trend: can sometimes save, but under a unilateral trend, it is slow suicide.
Traders who can truly survive are those who repeatedly bet in the 'probability advantage' with a systematic approach — earning more when right and losing less when wrong. 2. Recognize yourself again: You are not a genius, nor are you a cool evening.
Most people do not die in the market from ignorance but from arrogance: Obsessed with predictions: trying to catch every top and bottom. Technical obsession: piling on indicators while ignoring position and risk control. Superstitious about luck: attributing profits to oneself and blaming the market for losses. Overconfidence: after a series of profitable trades, thinking one is invincible.
Please remember: Discipline > Technique, Execution > Inspiration, Stability > Excitement.
The trades that truly make money are often boring.
3. The underlying logic that ordinary people can make money
You do not need to become a genius; you only need to establish a trading system that can be replicated and persisted.
1) Capital management: Only use a small portion of total capital for each position, lightly test the trend confirmation before adding more, and do not go all in at once. Keep total position not exceeding 30% to retain room for maneuver.
2) Choose a cycle that suits you: Short-term: Strong market sense and quick response; Swing: Suitable for those who can endure fluctuations and ride trends; Long-term: Those who understand macro and fundamentals have a better chance.
3) The trading system should be simple, executable, and replicable. Trend strategies: follow the trend, do not add positions against the trend. Fluctuation strategies: buy low and sell high, stop-loss should be fast. Arbitrage strategies: cross-platform price differences, small fluctuations for arbitrage, high win rate but slow.
4) Stop-loss and take-profit must be mechanically executed. Set the stop-loss line before entering, and take profits can be done in batches. Do not be greedy or cowardly; capturing the middle part of the trend is sufficient.
5) Emotional management: Reduce the frequency of watching the market, avoid impulsive trading, accept losses, do not average down on losses, do not inflate profits. Write trading logs, continuously review and optimize the system. 4. The key to truly surviving: mindset and compounding.
The hardest thing to defeat in the crypto world is not the market, but one's own greed and fear.
What you need to do is not to achieve 'ten times in a year', but to achieve stable annual returns + strict stop-losses + not being eliminated by the market.
Do not underestimate the act of 'surviving'; compounding is the only way for retail investors to compete with institutions: 30% annualized, 10 years is 20 times; 50% annualized, 10 years is 57 times. Doubling in one year, then bankrupt in the second year means zero.
And if you accidentally incur a loss —
Final advice: Do not become a 'legend', please become a 'survivor'.
In the crypto world, legendary stories belong to a very few people; the vast majority of winners are ordinary people who can survive in a long market.
Make fewer mistakes, execute more, review regularly, and maintain rationality and patience.
In trading, have you ever had such confusion: the trend of a certain time cycle shows bullish, while another time cycle shows bearish?
For example: On the 1-hour chart of EOS quarterly contracts, the price peaks and troughs are gradually rising, forming a clear upward trend. However, when switching to the daily chart, the peaks and troughs are gradually lowering, forming a downward trend.
The essence of the problem: Multi-cycle trend conflict
Short cycle: The trend is sensitive, capturing short-term fluctuations, but signals are more easily disturbed by noise.
Long cycle: Trends are more stable, excluding short-term fluctuations, but react slowly.
Core question: How should we judge the trading direction? Bullish or bearish?
By carefully observing the following wave-like trend, it can be seen that the long-term trend is actually composed of multiple medium-term trends, which in turn are composed of multiple short-term trends.
The bull or bear markets that investors love to discuss typically refer to long-term trends spanning several months or years.
2. Classification of trend time cycles
1. Three types of trends
Short-term trend: Fluctuations within a few hours, the main reference cycle for short-term trading.
Medium-term trend: Fluctuations from a few hours to a few days, the main reference cycle for mid-line trading.
Long-term trend: Fluctuations from a few days to weeks or longer, the main reference cycle for long-line trading.
The following is a 4-hour candlestick chart of BTC/USDT, where the A, B, C troughs gradually rise, forming an upward trend. When the price falls back to point D, below the recent upward starting point C, the upward trend is confirmed to have ended.
Practical example: Analysis of BTC multi-cycle trends
Short-term trend (1-hour chart): Local rebounds or pullbacks are the core of short-term trading.
Medium-term trend (4-hour chart): Periodic rises or falls reflect medium-term capital sentiment.
Long-term trend (daily or weekly charts): Continuous bull or bear markets are the main basis for large fund inflows and outflows.
2. Multi-cycle trend structure
Short-term trends overlap: Forming medium-term trends.
Medium-term trend overlaps: Forming long-term trends.
Practical advice: Confirm the trend direction through multi-cycle switching to avoid being misled by a single cycle.
3. The distinction between primary and secondary trends: Interpretation of Dow Theory
1. Three types of trend structures
Primary trend: The main direction of the market, lasting the longest, such as a bull market or bear market.
Secondary trend: Corrective fluctuations within the primary trend, such as short-term pullbacks in a bull market or rebounds in a bear market.
Short-term trend: Subtle fluctuations within the primary or secondary trend, the focus of short-term traders.
2. Practical case: BTC trend layering
Primary trend (weekly): The super bull market of BTC from 2015 to 2017, with prices rising from $200 to $20,000.
Secondary trend (daily): Every pullback in a bull market is an opportunity for bulls to enter.
Short-term trend (4 hours): Daily fluctuations are the core of short-term traders' operations.
3. The amplitude of the trend: Application of Dow Theory
Amplitude of secondary trend pullbacks: Generally 1/3 to 2/3 of the primary trend.
How to utilize: The degree of pullback can serve as a basis for stop-loss and adding positions.
4. The lifecycle of a trend: Birth, development, and decline
1. The three major phases of a trend
Birth of the trend: Breaking through key support or resistance levels, the trend begins to appear.
The development of the trend: The trend continues to run, with multiple rebounds or pullbacks, but the main direction remains unchanged.
Decline of the trend: The trend reverses, previous high or low points are broken, confirming the end of the trend.
2. Judging trend reversals
End of the upward trend: New lows are below the starting point of the previous upward wave.
End of the downtrend: New highs are above the starting point of the previous downtrend.
5. Coping strategies under trend conflicts: Multi-cycle trading rules
1. Multi-Cycle Trend Confirmation Method
Determine the trading direction: First confirm the long-term trend direction, then observe the medium-term trend to find entry opportunities, and finally execute entry through the short-term trend.
Core thought: Short-term follows medium-term, medium-term follows long-term.
2. Responding to multi-cycle trend conflicts
Long-term investors: Only look at the primary trend, ignoring secondary and short-term trends.
Mid-line traders: Look for reversal opportunities in secondary trends within the primary trend.
Short-term traders: Capture brief trend fluctuations in secondary trends.
3. Practical skills: Three-cycle trading method
Long-term trend (weekly): Confirm the direction of bull or bear market.
Medium-term trend (daily): Looking for pullbacks or rebounds in the main direction.
Short-term trend (4 hours): Determine entry and exit signals, execute trades.
6. Case analysis: For example, BTC multi-cycle trend trading
1. Confirm the primary trend
Cycle: Weekly or monthly.
Direction: Confirm bull market or bear market.
2. Capture secondary trends
Cycle: Daily.
Signal: Pullback to key support or resistance levels, using trend lines and moving averages to assist in judgment.
3. Execute short-term trades
Cycle: 4 hours or 1 hour.
Strategy: Combine candlestick patterns and technical indicators (such as MACD, RSI, MA) to execute openings, stop-losses, and take-profits.
7. Practical summary: Choose a trend cycle that suits you.
Long-term investors: Focus on the primary trend, with a cycle of weekly or monthly.
Mid-line traders: Focus on secondary trends, with cycles of daily or 4 hours.
Short-term traders: Focus on brief trends, with cycles of 1 hour or shorter.
Key thought:
Trends can be large or small, cycles can be long or short; choose the cycle that suits you and follow the trend.
Do not easily guess the top or bottom before the trend is confirmed to have ended.
In case of trend conflict, prioritize the larger cycle and support with the smaller cycle.
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