The crypto market is like a wild roller coaster, and SOL is stuck at a critical turn—will it derail or accelerate to the peak?

Brothers and sisters in the crypto circle, recently, the price movement of SOL has been nerve-wracking, like being on a roller coaster at the most thrilling turn. Will it rush forward to new heights or be thrown off and end up with a bruised nose? Everyone is uncertain. Today, let's talk about the current situation of SOL, breaking down the complex analysis into simple terms so everyone can understand clearly.

Technical Perspective: 'Speed Bumps' on the Road to Rising

The current price of SOL is like a runner sprinting, having reached the critical threshold of $158 - $159. This is where the historical high point line overlaps with the Fibonacci extension, like a tall and sturdy wall that is not easy to break through.

From the trading volume perspective, above $155, there are clearly more buyers, and the trading volume is rising. But strangely, the MACD indicator histogram is contracting, which is like a person running hard but getting weaker—this is a typical 'volume-price divergence', indicating that the momentum of the rise is weakening, and the risk of a pullback is increasing.

Looking at the RSI indicator, although it hasn't reached overbought yet, it's close to the 70 warning line. If the price rises and then falls, it may form a short-term top, like building a house with an unstable foundation but building too high too quickly, making it prone to collapse.

Let me give you an example: there was a coin that also reached a critical resistance level with increased trading volume but MACD divergence. As a result, it couldn't break through and fell for a long time. So short-term investors must keep a close eye on the $158 resistance level. If the price stays above this level for three consecutive hours, it might push up to $170; if it falls below $155, we have to be careful whether the $149 support level can hold.

News: A ‘Great Battle’ of Positive and Negative Factors

Technical Upgrade: Equipping SOL with a 'Super Engine'

The 'Photon Network' upgrade in July 2025 is SOL's 'secret weapon'. After the upgrade, the theoretical TPS can be boosted to over 1 million, with a stable actual commercial environment at 500,000 TPS, and energy consumption reduced to 0.001% of the Bitcoin network. It's like replacing a small broken car with a supercar—faster and more fuel-efficient. With this upgrade, institutional applications, like Visa stablecoin settlements, will run smoothly on SOL. Moreover, the global sales of Solana's Saga 3 mobile phone have exceeded 50 million units, which is an important entry point for on-chain consumption scenarios, like opening a door to a new world for SOL.

ETF Approval: The Key to Traditional Capital's 'Floodgate'

The Solana ETF applications submitted by institutions like VanEck and 21Shares have entered the SEC approval countdown, with Bloomberg analysts predicting a 70% chance of approval by the end of 2025. If the ETF is approved, traditional financial capital will flow in like a tide, and the price of SOL will certainly be revalued. Remember what happened after the Bitcoin ETF was approved? A monthly increase of over 30%—SOL could likely replicate such brilliance.

Ecosystem Explosion and Unlocking Pressure: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

The current Solana ecosystem is bustling, with DeFi locked value surpassing $105 billion, and daily active users of applications like STEPN exceeding 30 million. The meme coin craze has also been driving on-chain activity. However, behind the good news, there is bad news: in March 2025, 11.2 million SOL (about $2 billion) will be unlocked from the FTX estate, which is like a group of people waiting to sell stocks, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure.

Sancet's View: Short-term Volatility, Long-term Optimism

Short-term (1 - 2 weeks): Beware of 'Sudden Brakes'

I think in the next 1-2 weeks, the price of SOL may fluctuate in the range of $149 - $155, but there is strong buying support below $145, like a big net catching it from below. However, if the unlocking event in March triggers panic selling, we will have to see if the support level at $145 (200-day moving average) can hold.

Medium to Long-term (3 - 6 months): The 'Three Carriages' Lifting Prices

Technical upgrades, ETF approvals, and ecosystem explosions are like three carriages pulling SOL's price up. If it can break through the $170 resistance level, SOL's future will be bright. However, there are also some key variables to watch, such as competition pressure from Ethereum Layer 2 and the final determination of the PoH mechanism by the SEC in the US, both of which could impact SOL's movement.

Trading Secret: Gradual Unwinding and Dynamic Response

Solution for Unlocked Positions

  • Passive Holders: If you're stuck, you can add positions near $149, but don't exceed 50% of your original holding. This can lower your average cost to around $153, and if it rebounds to $165 later, you can take profits in batches and gradually recover your losses.

  • Leverage Traders: If your current holding cost is above $160, I suggest setting a stop-loss at $158 and placing a buy order at $149 for a technical rebound. However, leverage trading carries significant risks, so everyone must be cautious.

New Entry Strategy

  • Short-term Strategy: You can lightly position in the range of $149 - $155, set a stop-loss at $145, and aim for $165 - $170. It's like fishing by the river, using a small hook to see if you can catch a big fish.

  • Long-term Configuration: Treat SOL as a core holding, occupying 15 - 20% of your portfolio, and you can also participate in liquidity staking, such as the Jito protocol, with an annual yield of about 6.2%, plus airdrop rewards—it's like putting money in the bank to earn interest while also having extra surprises.

Risk Hedging

You can allocate 10% of your funds to USDC, and when the SOL/ETH ratio falls below 0.05 (meaning 1 SOL is less than 0.05 ETH), you can switch to ETH to hedge against downside risk. It's like buying yourself insurance; if the price of SOL falls, ETH might help you recover some losses.

Friends, SOL is now at a crossroads; whether to turn left or right depends on how we operate. Gradually building positions, strict stop-losses, and participating in staking to increase yields are all good methods to navigate short-term volatility. Remember, in the crypto market, patience is more important than prediction, and risk control is more critical than profit. If you want to learn more about SOL's latest developments and trading techniques, be sure to follow me so we can ride the waves together in the crypto world and reap great rewards!