Bitcoin has reached a new high, but the market doesn't seem too crazy.
Last night, during the Wall Street trading session, Bitcoin strongly broke through the previous high, briefly reaching $12036.8, refreshing the historical record once again.
This is undoubtedly an exciting moment for bulls, but unfortunately, the daily chart ultimately failed to firmly hold above the previous high, pulling back with a long upper shadow in the first minute.
In other words, friends who chased in during the first wave are currently in a floating loss state.
So, is this long upper shadow really a 'top signal'? Is it time to go short?
Today's article shares my observations and judgments from objective market conditions to subjective biases, and then to the breakdown of bullish and bearish strategies.
Bullish perspective: Prices have risen, but the sentiment hasn't kept up.
The breakthrough of this historical high is not driven by strong 'greed' in the market.
Let's break this down from three dimensions:
1. Greed and fear index: Not in extreme greed.
Currently still in the 'greed' phase, but not at an extreme. This reflects that while the market is bullish, the enthusiasm for chasing the rise is not aggressive.
2. Funding rate: Long and short positions are relatively balanced
0.01% funding rate indicates that both sides are evenly matched. There hasn't been an 'explosive' chase for longs like in past bull markets.
3. Currency-based behavior: Many spot holders choose to cash out rather than leverage up.
After reaching new highs, many BTC holders chose to reduce positions and exit rather than leverage up to go long. This is a cautious signal.
So even though the price has reached a new high, on-chain and sentiment-wise, we haven't seen the typical FOMO scenario of a bull market outbreak.
Bearish perspective: It's not time to take action yet.
So can we short right away? I believe the timing isn't right yet.
Why? Because although the price has fallen back, structurally, the bears have not truly gained an advantage.
✔ What I consider a real bearish confirmation signal:
A daily level 'false breakout structure' has occurred (i.e., directly engulfing after a new high)
Volume cannot continue to expand with price (there is indeed no volume increase at present, this is a warning)
MACD death cross + breaking below the 0 axis (hasn't triggered yet)
In other words: Bears need 'secondary confirmation'.
First lure in buyers, then come back to break the bottom; that would be the real short signal.
My strategy suggestions (spot / contract discussed separately)
📌 Spot holders:
If you entered the market at 70,000 - 80,000, you can reduce your position in two areas:
One: If the price subsequently falls below the previous high range, confirming the breakout failure, decisively reduce your position.
Another: If it can't stabilize above $112,000, it is also advisable to reduce your position.
📌 Contract short-term players:
Bullish strategy:
If there is a pullback to the previous consolidation top of the 109700–109800 range, this could be a strong support area, consider betting on a rebound.
Bearish strategy:
Don't rush. It's advisable to wait until the price falls below a certain key low (like below 113,000) before considering entering, and wait for confirmation of structural breakdown.
🔍 Additional technical hints
Yesterday, Bitcoin's price very precisely approached the 0.618 Fibonacci level, just a few dollars away from triggering a massive rally, breaking through new highs after clearing out liquidity.
During this surge, spot trading volume did not significantly increase, more like a 'tentative breakout' rather than a 'full explosion'.
MACD momentum divergence is severe; if a death cross occurs subsequently, it can easily trigger a large-scale selling signal from quantitative funds.
🤖 Subjective bias: Historical high = top?
This is my personal observation.
Each round of Bitcoin's peak is almost always a 'double top structure' (the second top is higher than the first top)
This means if this is the top, there may still be another surge, making a 'false breakout' before collapsing.
Therefore, I do not agree with directly going short heavily at this step; one should wait for the structure to unfold before judging.
As I've always said:
"Trading cannot rely on guessing; wait for the market to give you evidence."
🧠 Finally, let's talk about Ethereum (ETH)
ETH has currently reached around $2880, which is a key liquidity point in the past structure.
I believe this area is a zone of position swapping; if it can hold steady, it may break through the head and shoulders bottom pattern.
However, at this stage, it is not recommended to chase the high; still need to watch Bitcoin's movements.
📌 To summarize:
The market has reached a critical point, don't rush to place bets, first see clearly the chips on the table.
If you find this article enlightening, feel free to share and like; we'll continue to break down the market next time.