After the FOMC meeting minutes were released in June, market sentiment hardly changed: the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is as high as 93.3%, basically a sure thing.

But what is truly interesting is September, where changes are starting to show.

The latest data indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in September has dropped from 35.4% to 28.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has increased from 60.8% to 67.2%. This suggests that the market is increasingly inclined to believe: 'a rate cut in September' is really coming, and it is the main theme. In other words, although the Federal Reserve's attitude is still tough verbally, the market has already made its choice in advance.

For Ethereum, the positive factors for ETH are even more layered:

Institutional funds continue to flow into ETH ETFs + futures open interest reaches a new high for the period.

The ETH/BTC trading pair shows a strengthening trend, indicating the start of altcoin season.

Additionally, with the macroeconomic interest rate turning, risk-on assets overall benefit.

If ETH can hold the $2650—$2750 region, breaking through $3000 will just be a matter of time.

Especially under the combination of 'rate cuts + altcoin relay', ETH is expected to become the 'rebound pioneer' in this round of market trend.