BTC Hits New All-Time High, Can the Uptrend Continue?
Bitcoin broke through its previous high at the end of the U.S. stock market on July 9, reaching a new all-time high of nearly $112,000 per coin, with an intraday increase of nearly 3%. This breakthrough was driven by multiple factors, and there is a certain possibility for future gains:
1. Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts Provide Support
The minutes from the Fed's June meeting showed internal disagreements, but most participants believe that rate cuts may be appropriate this year, enhancing market expectations for future liquidity easing, which is favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.
1. Mainstream Camp: Most believe there may be rate cuts this year, but rule out an immediate cut in July, needing to wait for clearer inflation and economic outlook.
2. Hawkish Camp: A minority believes there should be no rate cuts this year, as inflation data still exceeds the 2% target.
3. Dovish Camp: A minority is willing to consider rate cuts at the next meeting if the data meets expectations.
2. Long-Term Holders Remain Firm
1. The total amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders accounts for 74% of the total supply, showing their strong belief in the market and providing support.
2. Since July 2024, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have steadily decreased, indicating that investors prefer long-term holding, reducing market selling pressure. If history repeats itself, there may be further room for a bull market.
3. Technical Analysis Shows Upward Potential
1. Bitcoin is in a clear upward channel, highly consistent with the Fibonacci channel since 2013. The “bull flag” top has turned into a support level, signaling strong bullish sentiment, with prices consistently above the 50-day simple moving average.
2. Analysts predict that the technical breakout of the “bull flag” points to a target price of $168,500; if following the fractal pattern of M2 money supply, a parabolic rise may occur after the consolidation period ends; the current cycle is similar to the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, indicating potential for significant upward movement; if following the 2020 pattern, prices may peak in October.
In summary, macroeconomic advantages, institutional adoption, and companies accumulating Bitcoin resonate to drive Bitcoin to new highs. Long-term holders remain steadfast, and from the perspective of market momentum, there may be stronger upward trends in the second half of the year.
