At a time when uncertainty is the dominant sentiment in the market, the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, and Trump wields the tariff stick, it should have been a moment for risk assets to collectively correct; however, Bitcoin broke through the $112,000 mark in one go, using a stunning bullish candle to redefine the boundaries of 'safe-haven assets' for the global market.

1. Early morning market fluctuations: Why are traditional and crypto assets strengthening in sync?

At 2 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June meeting. Although interest rates remained unchanged, the minutes removed the description of 'inflation continuing to decline' and instead emphasized that 'the economic outlook remains highly uncertain,' with an overall hawkish tone. However, unexpectedly, all three major US stock indices strengthened (Dow Jones up 0.49%, Nasdaq up 0.94%), while Bitcoin directly broke through its historical high.

Behind the apparent contradictions, there are actually three major logics:

1. The coexistence of 'vague' dovish and hawkish signals releases expectation gaps

Although the minutes lean hawkish, they do not completely rule out the possibility of a rate cut in September—CME FedWatch shows that the market is currently still expecting a probability of over 60% for a rate cut. This ambiguous statement creates an opportunity for bulls, reinforcing expectations of liquidity easing.

2. Tariff shocks translate into crypto buying pressure

Trump announced a tariff of up to 50% on Brazil, directly impacting emerging markets, causing the Brazilian real to fall 3% against the dollar. Interestingly, the Bitcoin premium on Brazilian local exchanges once surged to 8%, indicating that local investors are using BTC to hedge against domestic currency devaluation risks.

3. The 'mirror reflection' of asset reallocation

In April 2025, when the US imposed additional tariffs on China, Bitcoin once dropped 7%, but then rebounded over 15%. The same logic continues to this day; initial market panic was quickly reversed—according to Coinglass data, between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m., Bitcoin futures open interest increased by 12%, indicating that major funds are entering strongly.

2. The underlying logic behind the surge: Crypto assets are undergoing an 'identity transformation'

1. Decoupling of macro policy and coin price

Traditionally, rising interest rates suppress the crypto market. However, Bitcoin's performance this year shows that its sensitivity to 'real interest rates' and 'macro expectations' has far exceeded that of nominal interest rates.

After the release of the minutes, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury only rose by 2 basis points to 4.52%, while BTC surged by 3%. This represents the market placing more importance on the directional signals released by 'reduced uncertainty.'

Looking back at the end of 2024: Although the Federal Reserve signaled a 'slowing of rate cuts' in December, due to enhanced expectations of a rebound in global liquidity (M2), Bitcoin actually entered a bull run ahead of time.

2. Global capital reallocation: Is Bitcoin replacing gold?

In emerging markets, stock markets in countries like Brazil and Mexico have seen significant declines due to tariff impacts, but at the same time, Bitcoin trading activity in these regions has surged by 40%. This indicates that BTC is becoming a 'store of value anchor' for non-dollar assets.

Meanwhile, at the institutional level, asset preferences are also changing: BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million yesterday, while gold ETFs saw outflows as high as $380 million on the same day—clearly, large funds have positioned BTC as the 'main force against inflation.'

3. Technical analysis and on-chain signals resonate

From a technical perspective, BTC's weekly level has broken through the downward channel since the end of 2024, and trading volume is steadily increasing, indicating a typical upward breakout pattern.

From the on-chain perspective, large addresses (wallets holding over 1,000 BTC) continued to accumulate in July, buying a total of 18,000 BTC, primarily concentrated in the $105,000 to $108,000 range—mainstream 'smart money' is clearly positioning ahead of time.

3. Outlook for the future: Is $120,000 the endpoint or the starting point?

Short-term perspective (1-2 weeks)

Key resistance: $115,000; if this level is broken, the price is expected to rapidly challenge the $120,000 mark.

Potential risks: If Trump imposes further tariffs on the EU, it may trigger a brief correction. At that time, $105,000 will be a key support level, and low-buy opportunities can be observed.

Mid-term outlook (1-3 months)

Main drivers:

The probability of a rate cut in September continues to rise;

The continuous fundraising of Bitcoin ETFs;

Global M2 growth rate in Q3 is expected to exceed 6%.

Target price: $120,000 to $130,000, corresponding to the global crypto asset market cap percentage increasing from the current 10% to 15%.

In conclusion:

While traditional finance continues to debate the 'Federal Reserve's pivot,' the crypto market has quietly completed its identity leap. From a speculative risk asset to a global safe-haven asset, Bitcoin is becoming a core part of macro capital allocation.

This time, Bitcoin is not a follower, but a price setter.