Market Blitz: Why did ETH suddenly surge last night?

Triple Engine Ignition in News:

  1. Federal Reserve 'Dovish Shadow Looms': The latest FOMC meeting minutes show that most officials support a rate cut in 2025, and some members expressed a willingness to consider rate cuts in the July 30 meeting. Expectations for eased market liquidity have surged, causing risk assets to collectively stir. Bitcoin previously broke its historical high of $112,000, with over 100,000 liquidations in 24 hours, and ETH has begun a compensatory rally.

  2. Trump Tariff 'Black Swan' Becomes 'Fuel': Trump unexpectedly imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil effective August 1, causing the Brazilian Real to plummet by 2% in a single day. The escalation of global trade tensions has accelerated the inflow of risk-averse funds into the crypto market, with ETH being aggressively acquired as a core asset.

  3. Intensifying Macroeconomic Policy Game: The Federal Reserve warned that tariffs could push up inflation, while Trump continues to pressure for interest rate cuts, claiming 'a 3-point interest rate too high costs the US 360 billion'. The policy contradictions are exacerbating market concerns about the fiat currency system, and the 'decentralized narrative' of cryptocurrencies is regaining popularity.


Technical 'Golden Cross' Confirms Trend:

MACD Strong Opening: The user provided chart shows that DIF has crossed above DEA, and the MACD histogram has expanded to 14.12, presenting a 'Golden Cross' bullish pattern, indicating strong upward momentum.

Key Resistance Breakthrough: ETH closed at 2779.82 yesterday, successfully stabilizing above the 2770 neckline pressure area, forming an 'ascending triangle' breakout on the daily level with increased volume and a concentrated technical buying surge.



Market Forecast: Can the surge continue? Full insight into target and defensive levels.

Bull Market Scenario

Catalyst: If the CPI data on July 11 is lower than expected, or if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by the end of July, ETH will aim for the psychological barrier of $2900. Historical data shows that ETH's average increase during rate cut cycles reaches 35%.

Technical Target: Weekly head and shoulders bottom pattern indicates a price increase towards the 2800-2900 range, resonating with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level, forming a strong resistance zone.

Correction Risk

Macroeconomic Black Swan: If Brazil and other countries impose reciprocal tariffs, or if CPI data rebounds above expectations, it may trigger a reversal in risk aversion sentiment. ETH might retest the 2650-2700 support zone.

On-chain Alert: Beware of whale selling pressure. There was a precedent in March where a single address sold 6000 ETH, causing a price crash. Currently, the ETH staking rate has reached 18.7%, near historical highs, increasing liquidation risks.


Bull-Bear Watershed:

Strong Defensive Level: 2750

Bull-Bear Turning Point: 2600

Operation Strategy: Go with the trend, be wary of volatility amplifiers.

Short-term Aggressors: Current price 2778, light position for long, add position on breakthrough at 2800, stop loss at 2720, target 2950.

Medium-term Layout: Accumulate in batches during the pullback to 2700-2730, stop loss at 2600, hold until above 3000 for partial profit-taking.

Risk Hedging: Buy ETH put options with a strike price of 2600 or short the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Pressure from competing chains like SOL remains.


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