Let's delve deeper into $BTC movements on Thursdays and Fridays, focusing on the US time zone, and the factors that influence them.
When we examine historical data, Bitcoin exhibits an interesting pattern towards the end of the US trading week. On Thursdays, the average daily return for Bitcoin is recorded at 0.03%, indicating a slight average gain. However, what's more notable is the higher frequency of "red" days (price declines), totaling 102 days, compared to 84 "green" days (price increases). Moving to Friday, the average daily return for Bitcoin shifts slightly into negative territory, at -0.02%, with 98 days of price drops versus 88 days of gains.These figures suggest a subtle tendency for Bitcoin's price to decline more often than it rises on both these days.
Nevertheless, it's crucial to remember that Bitcoin is an inherently volatile asset, so significant price movements in either direction are always possible.
This price dynamic is closely tied to the release of crucial economic data from the United States. Every Thursday, precisely at 08:30 AM Eastern Time (ET), the market anticipates the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims. The PPI offers insights into production costs, which can signal future inflation, while Jobless Claims reflect the health of the labor market. Then, on Friday, at 10:00 AM ET, it's the turn of the Consumer Sentiment Index, providing a glimpse into consumer confidence in the economy. These data points are vital because they offer clues about the US economic health and can influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. For instance, if the data suggests a weakening economy or moderating inflation, the market tends to anticipate that the Federal Reserve might ease its policies, which is often seen as a positive signal for Bitcoin. Conversely, strong economic data or persistent inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies, potentially putting downward pressure on Bitcoin price.
Beyond macroeconomic factors, the crypto market also has unique characteristics heading into the weekend. While traditional US financial markets (like stock exchanges) close on Friday afternoon, the crypto market continues to operate 24/7. However, liquidity tends to thin out as many major players, particularly institutional ones, reduce their activity. This condition can make prices more susceptible to wild swings and even trigger "gap risk" when traditional US markets reopen on Monday, especially if significant news emerges over the weekend. Furthermore, monthly Bitcoin options expirations from CME Group often fall on the last Friday of each month (for example, July 25, 2025). These events can add another layer of volatility and strategic positioning as traders manage their derivative exposures. Therefore, for anyone investing or trading Bitcoin, it's essential to constantly monitor the schedule of these economic data releases and remain cautious about rapidly changing market conditions as the weekend approaches.
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