💸 The Fed's balance has decreased by 2.6 billion.$ in one week!

▪️ Bostic, Chair of the Fed:

- Inflation due to tariffs is a matter of time, not probability.

- I do not expect sharp price jumps, but pressure will remain for a long time.

- I expect one rate cut this year and three in 2026.

- The Fed can achieve its inflation target without raising rates.

- The labor market is stable, allowing the Fed to "wait and see".

▪️ Barkin, Chair of the Fed:

- Inflation due to tariffs will occur, but consumers may resist price increases.

- There is no urgency in changing monetary policy; the labor market and demand are stable.

- Businesses are waiting for clarity on trade policy before investing.

- A lot of data will be released before the July meeting, and the Fed is watching closely.

▪️ Goolsbee, Chair of the Fed:

- There will be no stagflation like in the 1970s, but there is a risk of simultaneous deterioration in inflation and employment.

- I continue to emphasize caution and monitoring consumer behavior.

📌 Market expectations (Fed rate):

- July 30: PAUSE.

- September 17: decrease by 25 b.p. to 4.00-4.25%.

- October 29: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.75-4.00%.

- December 10: PAUSE.

- January 28, 2026: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.50-3.75%.

- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.

- April 29, 2026: PAUSE.