💸 The Fed's balance has decreased by 2.6 billion.$ in one week!
▪️ Bostic, Chair of the Fed:
- Inflation due to tariffs is a matter of time, not probability.
- I do not expect sharp price jumps, but pressure will remain for a long time.
- I expect one rate cut this year and three in 2026.
- The Fed can achieve its inflation target without raising rates.
- The labor market is stable, allowing the Fed to "wait and see".
▪️ Barkin, Chair of the Fed:
- Inflation due to tariffs will occur, but consumers may resist price increases.
- There is no urgency in changing monetary policy; the labor market and demand are stable.
- Businesses are waiting for clarity on trade policy before investing.
- A lot of data will be released before the July meeting, and the Fed is watching closely.
▪️ Goolsbee, Chair of the Fed:
- There will be no stagflation like in the 1970s, but there is a risk of simultaneous deterioration in inflation and employment.
- I continue to emphasize caution and monitoring consumer behavior.
📌 Market expectations (Fed rate):
- July 30: PAUSE.
- September 17: decrease by 25 b.p. to 4.00-4.25%.
- October 29: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.75-4.00%.
- December 10: PAUSE.
- January 28, 2026: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.50-3.75%.
- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.
- April 29, 2026: PAUSE.