Top global banks are expected to increase trading revenues by about 10% in Q2 2025 due to market volatility from new U.S. tax policies.
Stock and bond price fluctuations due to tariff changes have triggered strong trading activity, driving significant revenue growth from these activities in large financial institutions.
MAIN CONTENT
12 major global banks are expected to increase trading revenues by 10% in Q2 2025.
The stock market recorded an 18% revenue growth and a 5% increase in bonds in the past second quarter.
The trading revenue forecast for 2025 could reach a 16-year high, approximately $246.2 billion.
Which 12 global banks are leading the trend of increased trading revenues?
Data from Crisil Coalition Greenwich and Tradeweb Markets show that 12 major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, along with European banks, are leading the trend of increased trading revenues due to market volatility caused by U.S. tax policies.
Mollie Devine, Market Analysis Director at Coalition, commented that significant volatility led to an 18% increase in stock trading, outperforming the bond (5%) or foreign exchange sectors in the second quarter compared to the same period last year.
"News about tariffs is a positive stimulus for trading departments to take advantage of market volatility."
Mollie Devine, Market Analysis Director, Coalition, 2025
Wells Fargo also stated that banks benefit from high trading volumes due to policy trade instability, interest rate adjustments, and prolonged geopolitical tensions.
What are the reasons for the significant increase in trading revenues in Q2 2025?
Changes in U.S. tariff policies since April 2025 caused significant stock price fluctuations, leading to a surge in U.S. government bond trading volume and resulting in high market liquidity. Investors reduced risks, adjusted portfolios, facilitating banks to profit from liquidity creation activities.
"Anyone involved in liquidity-creating business benefits from this market movement."
Unnamed Wall Street official, 2025
According to Tradeweb Markets, the average daily trading volume reached a record $2.71 trillion in March 2025, a 39% increase compared to the same month last year.
What are the revenue trading forecasts for 2025 and the following trends?
Coalition Greenwich forecasts the total market revenue of the banks in the portfolio will increase by about 7% for the entire year of 2025, reaching $246.2 billion, the highest level since 2009 after the global financial crisis.
Analyst Mike Mayo forecasts that U.S. banks will increase trading revenues by 8% in the first half of the year, slowing to 5% in the second half and maintaining low single-digit growth in 2026 as the impact of tariffs eases.
Criteria Q1/2025 Q2/2025 2025 Forecast Trading revenue growth 15% 10% 7% restoring a 16-year high Stock trading revenue (Equities) — 18% — Bond trading revenue (Bonds) — 5% — Average daily trading volume (Tradeweb) $2.7 trillion $2.7 trillion —
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main reasons helping banks increase trading revenues since the beginning of 2025? Market volatility due to new U.S. tariff policies has created a strong liquidity increase, boosting stock and bond trading activities, helping banks achieve higher profits. Will this trend of increasing trading revenues continue into 2026? According to expert Mike Mayo, growth will slow down, maintaining low single-digit levels as the impact of tariffs diminishes in 2026. Which banks are in the group of 12 major global banks monitored by Crisil Coalition Greenwich? This group includes JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and major European banks. How do the trading results in the stock and bond markets differ? Stock trading revenues increased by about 18%, exceeding bond trading growth of about 5% in Q2 2025. What was the trading volume of U.S. government bonds in April 2025? U.S. government bond trading recorded a record spike, achieving the highest total value in history on the Tradeweb platform.
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