The big one is coming! The Federal Reserve will set the tone tonight, and the life-and-death window for major players in the crypto world has arrived!
Tonight at 2 AM, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting will reveal the policy direction for the second half of the year. For major players in the crypto world holding tens of millions in funds, this document is not only a barometer of traditional finance but could also become a trigger for crypto asset allocation. Subtle changes in policy signals could sway profits and losses by hundreds of millions of dollars.
The current market is focused on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The June CPI at 3.3% and employment data, with an increase of 206,000, show a cooling of inflation but resilience in employment, leading to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. Doves believe inflation is under control, suggesting the rate cut window is approaching; hawks warn that service inflation remains stubborn, advocating for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period.
If the minutes reveal a majority supporting a September rate cut, the US dollar index may plummet, and liquidity spillover could drive BTC higher, targeting $112,000 and ETH targeting $2,800; conversely, if “hawks dominate,” the crypto world may face tightening liquidity shocks.
20%-30% position: Gradually reduce positions when BTC is in the $108,000-$110,000 range to avoid a downturn if policies do not meet expectations;
40% position: Dove scenario: Add BTC and ETH; Hawk scenario: Buy USD stablecoins for hedging while also watching for gold correlation opportunities;
Policy is just a trigger; the real opportunity for wealth lies with those who are prepared in advance. The market changes every day, and don't let your mindset become too tense. If you often feel like you're a step behind or are disturbed by market noise, feel free to reach out to chat.