Key points
– Bitcoin supply tightens after halving (74% of on-chain assets are long-term locked, 75% have not moved in ≥6 months), floating supply significantly decreases, further bullish.
– Trading activity remains strong (average of about 735,000 active addresses over 30 days, daily transactions of 390,000 to 400,000), with NVT golden cross at 1.51, indicating real usage support for BTC/USD valuation.
– Holder indicators (realized market cap over $900 billion, SOPR ≈1.03, MVRV ≈2.3×) show strong confidence, moderate profit-taking, and controllable selling pressure.
– Continuous net outflows from exchanges, high hash rates, and various on-chain valuation models (S2F ~$248–369K, NVT) consistently point to a potential Bitcoin bull market increase to the $150,000 to $200,000 range in 2025, but macro and regulatory risks should still be noted.
The halving in April 2024 will cut Bitcoin's daily issuance to about 900 BTC, creating a significant supply shock. Currently, 74% of circulating Bitcoin has been locked for over two years, and about 75% has remained dormant for the past six months. Record hoarding behavior has further tightened the tradable supply, creating a strong bull market atmosphere for BTC/USD contracts and BTC/USDT spot markets.
This article will deeply analyze all major on-chain indicators—from active addresses, NVT, to SOPR, MVRV, and then to hash rate, exchange liquidity, and valuation models (Stock-to-Flow, NVT signals)—to help you understand why most expect Bitcoin to return to or exceed historical highs by the end of 2025, and how to position through Bitcoin spot, Bitcoin contracts, or Bitcoin staking.
2025 BTC On-chain Data Overview
BTC supply dynamics
The supply dynamics of Bitcoin have changed dramatically after halving:
Liquid vs. non-liquid supply
– Daily issuance has halved to about 900 BTC, slowing the pace of new coin issuance.
– Of the 19.8 million in circulation, only 14.6 million BTC have transferred in the past two years—74% are long-term locked, with little liquidity.
HODL wave and dormant coins
– About 75% of Bitcoin has zero transactions in the past 6 months.
– 25% of circulating coins have aged 3–4 years, indicating deep holding beliefs.
Insight: Supply squeeze
The scarcity effect brought by halving, combined with hoarding behavior at historical highs, has significantly compressed the floating supply of BTC available for sale. It is evident that even small-scale Bitcoin spot purchases or inflows into Bitcoin contracts can have a huge bullish impact on Bitcoin prices.
BTC trading activity
On-chain usage remains robust, not just a temporary hype:
Active address count
– An average of about 735,000 unique addresses active daily (30-day average), around 60% of historical levels.
Trading volume
– Daily on-chain transaction count is about 390,000 to 400,000, with a daily transfer value of about $45 billion.
– In April 2024, there was a surge in agreements, and afterwards, the volume returned to be driven by core financial demand.
On-chain demand indicators (NVT)
– The NVT value golden cross at about 1.51 (instead of the 'bubble' warning line of 2.2) indicates the Bitcoin price is supported by real value flow rather than pure speculation.
– Robust on-chain activity not only consolidates Bitcoin's position as a trading asset but also reinforces its 'digital gold' attribute.
Bitcoin holder behavior
Investor confidence remains strong:
Realized market cap
– Over $900 billion (a historical high), indicating that the benchmark for massive holding costs has been locked in.
Profitability indicators (SOPR & P/L ratio)
– SOPR≈1.03: Moving tokens are slightly profitable.
– The realized gains and losses of short-term holders are close to the cycle peak but have not yet reached the extreme profit-taking area.
MVRV analysis
– Market cap/realized market cap ratio is about 2.3×; long-term holders' average profit is +230%, while short-term holders are +13%.
Selling pressure risk
– Although selling pressure risk has increased, it is still lower than the peaks of 2017 and 2021, indicating a moderate pace of profit-taking without triggering panic selling.
Overall, holders are selectively cashing out some profits while retaining core positions, effectively reducing downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin miner dynamics
The mining economy directly affects BTC price trends:
Hash rate and difficulty
– Global hash rate has surpassed 1 ZH/s, with mining difficulty hitting new highs—this reflects both the network's security and compresses miners' profit margins.
Miner selling and income
– On April 7, 2025, miners sold about 15,000 BTC (around $1.1 billion) to cash out.
– Average miner income is about $39 million daily, down about 30% year-on-year.
The increase in difficulty and reduction in block rewards has forced some small mining operations to exit, creating short-term selling pressure; but it has also optimized the distribution of network computing power, providing a more solid support for long-term BTC prices.
Exchange capital flow
Exchange traffic indicators reveal market liquidity:
Net flow trends
– The net outflow on the 7-day moving average is at its highest in recent years, the most intense since the beginning of 2023.
Exchange holdings
– In April 2025, Binance's holdings fell from about 595,000 BTC to 544,500 BTC, with net withdrawals exceeding 51,000 BTC.
Liquidity impact
– Withdrawals significantly exceed deposits → market available supply becomes tighter, increasing short-term volatility risk.
Institutions and large holders are increasingly turning to cold wallets, reducing the available BTC on the spot market, meaning a new wave of spot or contract buying pressure can more easily drive up BTC/USD contract and BTC/USDT spot prices.
On-chain valuation models
Quantitative models provide pricing references for BTC:
Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
– Model valuations range from about $248,000 (463-day average) to $369,000 (10-day average).
– Limitations: Recent performance has been slightly low, and the fitting degree to the market after 2021 has decreased.
Network value to transaction (NVT)
– The NVT value golden cross at about 1.51 confirms that the current valuation is supported by real trading volume rather than pure speculation.
Other signals
– Mayer multiple (around 1.1–1.2), Pi cycle, MVRV Z score recovery, value days consumed (VDD), and other indicators all point to a healthy bull market phase.
Overall, various major on-chain models unanimously agree that Bitcoin prices still have room to rise before fundamentals become overheated.
BTC historical cycles and patterns
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin's bull and bear markets is driven by halving:
Four-year cycle framework
– Bull market phases after halving: 2013, 2017, 2021 (usually peaking 1–1.5 years after halving).
Mid-2025 correction
– MVRV Z score once dropped to ~1.43 at the cycle bottom; value days consumed (VDD) entered the 'green zone', indicating long-term holders are accumulating at low levels.
Next peak timing
– If history repeats, the third or fourth quarter of 2025 is very likely to become the peak of this cycle—but macroeconomic and regulatory dynamics could accelerate or delay the arrival of the peak.
Past cycles indicate that the adjustment from about $100,000 to $75,000 in early 2025 is a healthy mid-cycle breather, not the end of the cycle, laying the groundwork for the next wave of increase.
On-chain expert and institutional predictions
Most on-chain experts and institutional strategists have given a target range of $150,000 to $200,000 for 2025, based on increasingly tightening supply indicators and growing demand signals:
– Standard Chartered Bank, relying on the 'digital gold' theory, is optimistic about the continuous influx of spot ETFs, helping BTC/USD contracts and BTC/USDT spot markets to climb to $200,000 throughout the year.
– Goldman Sachs Bernstein also pointed out that large-scale institutional entry and improved liquidity in contracts and spot markets will strengthen the Bitcoin market depth.
– Michael Sigel of VanEck predicts that the cycle peak of about $180,000 will occur in 2025 based on the dual-peak cycle model.
– PlanB's S2F model continues to serve as a benchmark, predicting that prices will reach approximately $160,000 by the end of the year.
– On derivative platforms, Kalshi's market implied probabilities show a 43% chance of BTC exceeding $150,000.
– CryptoQuant's GLBX emphasizes that the continuous accumulation by long-term holders is a key bull market signal for locking in liquidity and supporting prices.
This series of predictions (ranging from $150,000 to $200,000) reflects: enhanced on-chain scarcity, increased liquidity in spot and contracts, and new yield opportunities like BTC staking, collectively driving the next bull market.
Competitive landscape
As the upward momentum of Bitcoin becomes increasingly evident in 2025, investors begin to weigh various assets:
– Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Altcoins like Ethereum and Solana offer smart contract applications but carry higher protocol risks. Bitcoin, with its large market cap, solid security, and long market history, remains the premier 'digital gold' value store.
– Bitcoin vs. Gold and Precious Metals: Gold and silver have low yields and are not easily portable. Bitcoin's programmable scarcity, portability, and high liquidity—whether spot or contract—provide a more flexible hedging option.
– Bitcoin vs. Stocks and Bonds: Stocks and bonds are heavily influenced by economic cycles, with limited upside. Bitcoin has low correlation with traditional assets and high growth potential, making it an attractive portfolio diversification tool through spot ETFs or futures contracts.
– Crypto yield products: Liquid staking derivatives offer additional returns but come with smart contract risks; centralized platforms like XT Earn provide regulated fixed/floating interest for BTC or USDT.
– Futures and derivatives: Futures contracts support leverage and hedging but come with rollover costs and margin risks—spot or staking yields are usually more stable for long-term holders.
Summary and outlook
The historic wave of locking up and record non-liquid supply after halving has made Bitcoin an unprecedented scarce asset. Robust on-chain usage rates, strong holder indicators, and decreasing exchange reserves all suggest that the bull market will continue until the end of 2025. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory changes potentially causing volatility, the forces of tightening supply and rising demand will drive Bitcoin prices back to or beyond historical highs. Market participants have various avenues to capture the next upward trend through BTC spot, BTC contracts, or BTC staking.
Common Q&A about Bitcoin
1. What drives Bitcoin prices after halving?
The halving mechanism reduces new coin supply, magnifying the scarcity effect when demand is stable or rising. On-chain indicators (non-liquid supply, HODL fluctuations) can intuitively reflect this tightness.
2. How do on-chain models like Stock-to-Flow predict BTC prices?
Stock-to-Flow links scarcity to value, predicting that prices will enter the mid to high six-figure range after halving. It offers a useful reference framework, though its accuracy has fluctuated since 2021.
3. What is the NVT ratio? Why is it important?
NVT (Network Value to Transaction Ratio) measures the relationship between market capitalization and on-chain transaction volume. A lower NVT (like 1.51) indicates that prices are driven by real usage rather than pure speculation.
4. How to gain returns from Bitcoin assets?
Optional solutions include liquid staking token staking, DeFi lending, and centralized interest products like XT Earn, all of which offer flexible or fixed-term yield plans.
5. Should I trade spot or Bitcoin futures?
Spot trading allows direct ownership of assets, making it safer and more stable; futures contracts support leverage and hedging, making them more suitable for short-term strategies. Long-term holders should consider spot or staking for profits.
6. When might Bitcoin reach $200,000?
Mainstream views suggest that the peak in the post-halving cycle will likely occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, but macro and regulatory factors may also accelerate or delay the peak's arrival.