Traders are becoming increasingly optimistic on social media about Bitcoin's ability to regain the $110,000 mark, but according to blockchain analysis platform Santiment, this wave of optimism is not always a good sign.
"Clearly, the crowd is starting to crave the prospect of Bitcoin reaching over $110,000," said Brian Quinlivan, an analyst at Santiment.
The amount of positive comments about Bitcoin has peaked in three weeks.
According to data from Santiment, for every negative comment about Bitcoin, there are currently 1.51 positive comments — the highest sentiment ratio in the past three weeks. This data was collected from various platforms such as X, Reddit, Telegram, 4chan, BitcoinTalk, and Farcaster.
Although improved investor sentiment may be seen as a positive signal, Quinlivan warns that such spikes have previously led to declines in Bitcoin prices, as occurred on June 11 and July 7.
"As we know, prices often move contrary to the expectations of the majority, as retail investors frequently incur losses due to overly emotional decisions."
Quinlivan pointed out trading activity on Monday when the number of optimistic comments increased as Bitcoin hit a local peak of $109,595, before quickly adjusting to $107,681.
"We clearly see that retail investors are pouring money into the rise of Bitcoin's price," he added.
Bitcoin may slightly adjust before setting a new peak.
Quinlivan believes that Bitcoin is likely to "slightly adjust" before surpassing the all-time high (ATH) of $111,970, set on May 22. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,500, up 2.16% in the past seven days.
Quinlivan also noted that Bitcoin whale wallets (holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have recently seen little activity. This may be a sign of caution in the market.
"Currently, these wallets are in a relatively suspicious state with no volatility. When they accumulate, prices often rise closely. Conversely, when they offload or pause accumulation, it usually signals a risk of a decrease in value across the crypto market," Quinlivan said, adding that whales have sold a total of 14,140 BTC over the past week.
However, he emphasized that the long-term trend remains optimistic, as whales and sharks (addresses larger than average but smaller than whales) have steadily accumulated over the past six months.
Macroeconomic challenges lie ahead.
Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, the commercial director of digital asset trading firm XBTO, shared that several upcoming events could test the market's endurance in the coming weeks.
Although his earlier concerns about the deadline for tariffs in the U.S. under President Donald Trump have eased after being postponed to August 1st, Rodriguez-Alarcon still warns that many other macroeconomic factors could affect the price trajectory of Bitcoin.
He mentioned that the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting meeting next Wednesday could impact the entire crypto market and pose "significant obstacles to risky assets."