Fed’s June Meeting Minutes May Signal September Rate Cut Is on the Table

Key Takeaways:

Fed’s June meeting minutes will be released Thursday at 2:00 a.m. ET.

Officials held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, while projecting two cuts before year-end.

Markets expect the minutes to hint at a potential rate cut as early as September.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes of its June 17–18 policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, with investors closely watching for signs that a rate cut could arrive as soon as September.

According to Jinshi Data, the June meeting saw Fed officials maintain interest rates within the 4.25%–4.50% range and suggest that two rate cuts may still be possible before the end of 2025.

The statement at the time acknowledged improving inflation trends, fueling speculation that the Fed is preparing to pivot away from its prolonged wait-and-see stance. Analysts expect the minutes to reveal internal discussions on the conditions under which the Fed would feel confident enough to begin cutting.

Should the minutes suggest the Fed believes incoming inflation and labor data will be sufficient by late summer, it would reinforce market expectations for a September rate cut.

The next FOMC policy decision is scheduled for July 29–30, and the tone of the June minutes could set the stage for a dovish shift if economic conditions continue to soften.