Bitfinex Alpha Report: Despite BTC Maintaining a Consolidation Trend, Retail and Institutional Investors Are Driving Bullish Signs
According to the latest report from Bitfinex Alpha, despite recent volatility in the Bitcoin market, its short-term holders' realized price (STH-RP) has remained steady between $98,220 and $99,474. This price level provides support for Bitcoin, indicating that bulls are still structurally in control, which also supports the view that potential momentum is leaning bullish.
Additionally, the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) has been rising and is currently hovering around $99,596, suggesting that new market participants are consistently accumulating, primarily led by institutional buyers purchasing Bitcoin through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and asset allocation.
However, during the current consolidation phase, Bitcoin's short-term upward momentum is waning near the upper price range. Data shows that futures market traders are generally choosing to close positions near the price level from July 2 to 4, indicating that although bulls still hold market dominance, there is a temporary lack of key momentum to push prices for a sustained breakout. The market needs new catalysts or clearer macro signals to initiate a new upward cycle.
Meanwhile, BTC whales are in a phase of reducing their holdings. Since June 30, Bitcoin whales—those holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC—have begun to reduce their assets. As of July 4, the market has witnessed a reduction of over 14,000 BTC, reflecting a cautious attitude among large investors.
However, despite the whales adjusting their positions in an uncertain macro environment, retail and institutional investors are actively stepping in. So far this month, the total holdings of STHs have increased by over 382,000 BTC, nearly matching the amount sold by long-term holders, and this buying behavior from STHs has supported the market trend this month.
Bitfinex analysts state that cryptocurrencies are experiencing a shift from native markets to new participants and institutions, a trend that may be driven by recent price declines and a rebound in macro interests following robust stock market performance. This asset redistribution could signal a market adjustment, laying the groundwork for future price increases.
