The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in October has risen from 80% to 85%. What signals does this reflect about the current economic situation?
Do you know why the U.S. is stuck at 4.25%-4.5%??
The U.S. needs to find a point that can both ease the current heavy interest burden and prevent capital from leaving the U.S.
If the U.S. lowers interest rates a bit more, for example to the 3% range, some funds will exit because projects in other countries with yields above 3% will appear more cost-effective.
Therefore, it must hold on to this interest rate until either it can no longer support it or it finds a reservoir to absorb at least some funds.
Otherwise, the U.S. will have to face a collapse similar to that of China's real estate sector in 2022 due to large-scale capital outflows, at which point a large number of Evergrande (banks) will go bankrupt.
Some people say that a gradual rate cut does not exist; once it reaches a certain point, capital will begin to leave, exacerbating the U.S. dilemma while improving the situation in China (capital flowing in and out). After that, it will be like urinating; once a little is released, it cannot be held back, and it will result in a mess.
Previously, those who entered at 2518 with Ethereum long positions continue to profit.
Today, pay attention to: magic, doge, sol, bonk
