A single needle can ignite an $8 billion powder keg — the ETH market this morning bombarded the positions of retail investors like a storm.
News: The leverage game of whales hides dangers.
Last night, high-risk operations were discovered on-chain.
A mysterious whale completed a lightning four-strike within three hours: withdrew 3 million USDC → bought 1187 ETH (cost $2527) → pledged Compound to borrow 2 million USDT → increased the position to 1969 ETH.
In conjunction with the exchange's ETH reserves plummeting to 13.2 million (a four-year low), the concentration of chips has reached a dangerous threshold.
Tang Seng's interpretation: This 'pledge lending cycle for increased positions' is the trumpet call for a leveraged bull market, but if the price breaks below the critical liquidation level of $2480, it will trigger a chain liquidation of $280 million.
Derivatives minefield: The bears' 'low-cost strike'.
Open contracts increased against the trend to $8 billion, but the perpetual funding rate remains negative, with bears only paying 0.005% per hour to bet on a decline.
Technical analysis:
Yesterday, the key range was $2510-$2540: breaking through $2540 will initiate a rally, riding on the trend line with a three-wave upward movement, a large bullish breakout at $2590, and capturing the $2607 high (this was predicted in last night's analysis, thumbs up for those who profited).
The MACD air refueling pattern on the indicator shows that the bulls were strong last night, but there is currently a tendency for a dead cross, and the market is in sideways fluctuation with shrinking trading volume. The forces of bulls and bears are in a balanced game, so be cautious of a sudden drop below the rising track.
Tang Seng warns: A macro black swan is approaching.
Tonight at 20:30, US unemployment claims data will be released, and ETH may become the most volatile asset.
Historical data confirms: When the unemployment data was released in June, ETH's volatility was 37% higher than BTC's.
If the data is bearish, the $2420 whale cost zone will become the last line of defense for the bulls.
Operation suggestion: Mainly observe in the short term. Those who are eager can go long when it pulls back to around $2580. If you can't pinpoint the buy and sell positions, click on my profile to follow me, and interact with over 50,000 experienced traders in real-time to share strategies and enjoy the harvest together? Let's join the bull market feast!