According to cryptocurrency expert Timo Oinonen's analysis, a long-awaited altcoin season may be ahead, with a significant increase in stablecoin reserves on Binance being viewed as a key factor. Oinonen points out that USDT and USDC balances on Binance reached a record 31 billion USD in June 2025, suggesting this could be sidelined capital expected to return to altcoins.
In a post on CryptoQuant, Oinonen explains that high stablecoin reserves on Binance imply 'a liquidity explosion is quietly underway,' with investors tending to hold less volatile assets like USDT and USDC before clearer opportunities emerge.
From 2023 to the end of 2024, the correlation between Bitcoin and stablecoin reserves on Binance is very strong, but since the beginning of 2025, this correlation has reversed. While Bitcoin continues to be withdrawn, stablecoins are flowing into Binance wallets, indicating that there is capital ready to be deployed.
With the global stablecoin market capitalization now exceeding 254 billion USD, of which USDT accounts for 159 billion USD and USDC 62 billion USD, the inflow of capital into the market is clear. Oinonen argues that the altcoin market could witness a boom as this 'dry capital' is allocated.
Similarly, the CEO of Alpharactal, João Wedson, also noted that the Altcoin Season Index is signaling opportunity. In the context of Bitcoin outperforming altcoins in recent months, Wedson believes this is the ideal time to accumulate other tokens at a discount compared to BTC.
Bitcoin's dominance is decreasing as TOTAL2 approaches a breakout pattern.
As Bitcoin consolidates at recent highs, the imbalance in reserves on Binance and the declining dominance of Bitcoin suggest that altcoins may soon regain momentum. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin's dominance has gradually decreased, indicating that capital may be shifting towards altcoins. However, this shift has yet to be fully apparent in the broader altcoin market.
The TOTAL2 chart, representing the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, remains below the critical resistance level of 1.25 trillion USD. Despite several attempts in May and June, this chart has not confirmed a bullish breakout on the daily timeframe, instead forming a series of higher lows.
Nevertheless, the current price action is beginning to form a cup and handle pattern—a bullish continuation setup. This pattern could yield an immediate bullish target of 1.55 trillion USD if confirmed, with the possibility occurring in Q3 to Q4.
Although a clear altcoin season has yet to emerge, many signals are gradually taking shape. Bitcoin's dominance is weakening, stablecoin reserves on Binance have surged to record levels, and the market structure is coiling below significant resistance. These conditions could quickly translate into a broader growth phase for altcoins with the right stimulus.