PI has barely changed for days, at nearly $0.456 despite the Pi Network community being hyped. While public sentiment remains optimistic, technical and on-chain data paint a gloomier picture. With trading reserves increasing and short positions accumulating, this setup hints at hidden selling, not strength.
The Sentiment of Pi Network Remains Hopeful, But the Setup Says Otherwise
Public sentiment around Pi Network remains surprisingly strong, despite increasing pressure on the charts. Some community analysts still call PI the 'sleeping giant', suggesting that its true value remains hidden.
Crypto analyst @Dr_Picoin noted this week that Pi Network has been 'forgotten by many' but is not worthless; it is simply misunderstood.
Meanwhile, trader @CRYPTOAD00 warns that selling Pi at around $0.45 could be a mistake, predicting a target price of $5 in the next altcoin season.
But while sentiment remains, the actual trading setup tells a different story. A story full of cautious signals and increasing selling pressure.
Whale Activity Spikes as Foreign Reserves Surge
One of the clearest warning signs is a spike in Pi coin exchange reserves. Over the past two months, reserves have increased by more than 40%. This indicates that large holders are moving money to centralized exchanges, likely preparing to sell.
Inflow has outperformed outflow on most CEX, indicating that the PI price is under cost pressure. When whales flood into exchanges, there is rarely a good outcome for the buyers.
Funding Rates Remain Negative, Retail Continues Short Selling
Pi coin continues to witness deep negative funding rates on perpetual futures. This means that short-sellers are dominant and are paying to hold their positions. This imbalance is a typical sign of the crowd's bearish sentiment. Even after a small recovery to $0.48, retail has not reversed.
The funding rate reflects the cost of long-term futures contracts compared to short-term ones. A negative rate means that most traders expect prices to drop further. If this congestion continues, any sudden upward movement could trigger a short squeeze. But for now, short selling is still in control.
Elder Ray Index Supports Bears
The Elder Ray index shows weak but balanced strength. Bull Power is still below 0 — buyers are not leading. But the strength of the bears is gradually forming.
This tells us that although selling is not aggressive, buyers have not yet returned strongly. The chart looks frozen. Neither side has complete control, but bears may just push bulls out.
Elder Ray is a momentum tool that shows who is dominating. In the case of PI, no one is dominating either side.
Currently, the PI price is trading near $0.456. The main support zone is $0.4035; if this zone is broken, the downtrend will quickly unfold.
On the bullish side, resistance levels are $0.4588 and $0.5023. If buyers exceed these levels, the path will open towards $0.60.
But unless these levels are cleared with volume, Pi is still stuck in a sideways trap. Furthermore, if $0.4035 is broken, the bullish trend may be invalidated. You can expect this to happen if exchange reserves continue to rise.
There is a potential saving grace: hidden bullish divergence on the RSI. While the PI price makes lower lows near $0.408, the RSI makes higher lows.
This is a classic divergence setup. This means that the PI price is declining, but momentum is recovering. Typically, this signals that selling pressure is weakening. RSI tracks momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. An increasing RSI while the price decreases may indicate a reversal.