Might not be the most popular analysis,
but bear with me.
The Objective Reality:
- A multi-trillion dollar, highly inflationary fiscal package has just become law.
- The Federal Reserve will be forced to maintain a more hawkish stance (higher rates for longer).
- Specific, new, and broad-based tariffs are being actively implemented, increasing global trade friction.
- The US Dollar (DXY) is strengthening, creating a major headwind for risk assets.
- The oldest, largest, and most conviction-driven wallets in both Bitcoin and Ethereum have moved billions of dollars to exchanges, signaling a clear intent to sell.
Market's Denial:
- Clinging to the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) narrative, betting that the tariff threats are a bluff.
- Focusing on long-term, highly optimistic chart patterns and price targets while ignoring the immediate macro storm.
- Circulating non-bearish explanations ("wallet upgrades") for objectively threatening on-chain movements.
- Generating low-volume weekend rallies based on hope rather than substance.
This disconnect is not just strange; it is the textbook definition of a late-stage distribution phase, where the "smart money" is selling to a crowd that is still high on the previous bullish hype.