#BinanceTurns8 $BTC

Bitcoin’s price volatility has dropped to levels rarely seen, even as the cryptocurrency trades just a few percentage points below its all-time highs. While this calm has been welcomed by some investors, analysts at QCP Capital are urging caution: the quiet may not last, and the second half of the year could bring dramatic market moves.

QCP Capital Forecast: Potential Bitcoin Market Fireworks in Q3-Q4 Due to ETF Inflows

According to recent commentary from QCP Capital, the current low-volatility environment could be the calm before the storm. They warn that the third and fourth quarters of the year may see “fireworks” as inflows from Bitcoin ETFs create a supply squeeze, potentially driving sharp price movements.

Understanding Bitcoin's Low Volatility Amid Prices Near All-Time Highs

Despite Bitcoin hovering just 2-3% below its record price, the market has entered a period of unusually low volatility. This is a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s reputation for wild price swings and signals that many market participants are currently sitting on the sidelines.

Why Bitcoin's Summer Calm Could Precede Volatile Q3 and Q4

Analysts describe the current market as being in a “Goldilocks scenario,” where several factors have contributed to the tranquility:

Expectations of delayed tariffs

Anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Open Markets Committee later this year

Ongoing fiscal deficits

These conditions have led to a market that appears stable, but QCP Capital cautions that such periods of quiet have historically preceded significant volatility.

Market Factors Behind Bitcoin's Low Volatility: Tariffs, Fed Rate Cuts, and Fiscal Deficits

The subdued price action is not just about investor sentiment. Macroeconomic factors—like the delay in new tariffs, the prospect of lower interest rates, and persistent government spending—have all contributed to a market environment where risk assets, including Bitcoin, remain buoyant but quiet.

Bitcoin Price Stability Supported by ETF Inflows and Corporate Treasury Investments

While many “whales,” long-term holders, and miners have been largely inactive, Bitcoin’s price has been supported by steady inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and public corporate treasuries. This new wave of institutional demand is helping to stabilize prices, even as traditional sources of volatility have faded into the background.