Hey #BinanceSquare fam! 🌟 Bitcoin is dancing close to its previous high of $111,980 (hit May 22, 2025) . Let’s explore what’s fueling this move, key indicators to watch, and why YOU should care.
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📈 1. 🔥 Price & Historical Context
BTC hit $111,980 on May 22, 2025 — eclipsing its April 2021 ATH of ~$69K . Currently trading around $109K, it's less than 3% shy of its peak .
Historically, BTC drawdowns from peak range ~80%, but current dip is modest ~2–3%, signaling healthy momentum .
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🔍 2. Key Indicators & On-Chain Data
HODLing Intensity: Glassnode reports rising long-term holder supply—meaning more BTC is being held, not sold .
Low Volumes + Volatility: Surprisingly, on‑chain liquidity and volatility are muted near ATH—echoing bull-run late-stage setups .
200‑Week SMA Watch: BTC recently closed above the 200‑week moving average. Historically, this has flagged cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021) .
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📊 3. Technical Action
Stoch RSI Bullish Crossover: Monthly Stochastic RSI shows upward crossover—201 Q3 2021 did the same before a ~57% rally . Promising momentum signal!
Chart Structure: Price sits near long‑term resistance (~$110K) with a consolidation/bullish flag forming. A breakout above could trigger a surge toward ~$128K–$145K .
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🌍 4. Macro & Market Sentiment
July "S&P Effect": Historically, BTC tracks equities in July. This year, S&P is green for 10 consecutive Julys—crypto could follow suit .
Global Liquidity & Halving Cycle: Rising global money supply (M2) and recent halving (April 2024) support ongoing bull run, expected to peak Q4 2025 .
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🛠️ 5. Square-Style Trade Plan
Setup Entry Zone Stop-Loss Profit Targets
Breakout Above $112,000–113,000 Below $105,000 TP1: $128K • TP2: $145K
Pullback Bounce near $100,000 Below $98,000 Partial lock at $110K, then above
Play it safe: validate breakouts, pick your risk points, and take profit incrementally. 🛡️
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⚠️ 6. Risks & Watch-Outs
Failed Breakout Risk: A wick above resistance then drop = liquidity grab. Could lead to consolidation .
200W SMA Cycle Top: Moving beyond this MA may slow momentum, historically marking late-stage cycles .
Macro Flare-ups: USD strength or sudden macro shocks can derail upside—stay alert.
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✅ Final Take
Bitcoin is on the cusp of re-claiming monthly ATH and possibly entering the next bull phase 🔥. With on-chain strength, favorable seasonality, and technical setups aligning, a breakout above $112K could light the fuse to $130K+ targets.
Hit or miss? Let’s discuss, stay disciplined, and trade smart—classic #BinanceSquare style 🚀
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💬 Your turn! Waiting for a breakout candle or a pullback dip? Let’s share plans & tips! 😉