📉 Macro context: dollar in crisis
The DXY Index (dollar strength) fell about 10–11% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop in over 50 years, driven by Trump's volatile economic policy (aggressive tariffs, rising debt, uncertainty in the Fed).
Analysts project that this trend of weakness may continue in the second half of 2025, should high fiscal deficits and interest rate cuts persist.
A weaker dollar historically stimulates flows into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies and gold.
💹 Technical analysis of Bitcoin
1. Current level and support/resistance
BTC/USDT is around 109,000–110,000 — below the recent high of ~111,980 USDT in May.
Key technical zones:
Resistance: range between 109,500–110,500. Breaking above with volume may signal momentum up to 112,000–125,000.
Critical supports: in the range of 102,430–100,000 USDT. If it breaks below, it could trigger a correction to 98,000–90,000.
2. Patterns and indicators
Short term/hourly: current consolidation between 108,000–109,000, a sign of indecision before a possible breakout.
Momentum indicators (like RSI) show slight bullish divergence, suggesting a positive bias.
Platforms like TradingView show a general 'buy' signal on average/short average, with oscillators also positive.
🔄 BTC scenario due to weak dollar
1. Macro catalyst: continuation of the dollar's decline will boost speculative demand for BTC as a hedge against inflation and devaluation.
2. Technical catalyst: if BTC breaks above 110,500 with volume, it could project institutional entries towards 130–140 thousand (scenario seen in 2021 and 2023).
3. Correction risk: if the support of ~102–100 thousand is lost, it opens up space for a drop to ~90 thousand, especially with a daily candle close below 100k.
✅ Strategies for traders
Long position above 110,500, with a target of 125–140 thousand and a stop below 108k.
Stops adjusted for those already bought around 108–109k, with an intermediate target at 112k and a stop slightly below the intraday low (~107k).
Caution near 100–102k — breaking below may indicate an ongoing correction trend.
🧭 Conclusion
The pronounced weakness of the dollar provides a strong macro backdrop for a rise in Bitcoin, reinforced by technical patterns suggesting a positive breakout. However, attention: the confirmation of this scenario will depend on:
Real volume at the break of resistance of 110–110.5k
Stability above support levels
Development of monetary and fiscal policies in the USA