Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates unchanged at the July 2025 meeting is currently very high, at 95.3%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut this month is only 4.7%.
For the next meeting in September 2025, the market predicts that the probability of the Fed continuing to keep the current interest rate unchanged has decreased significantly, to only 35.3%. In contrast, the likelihood of the Fed carrying out a total rate cut of 25 basis points is up to 61.8%, indicating an increasing expectation for looser monetary policy. Additionally, the probability of a more significant Fed rate cut totaling 50 basis points in September is recorded at 2.9%.
The above data reflects the adjustment of expectations in the global financial market in the context of the U.S. economy sending many mixed signals, while pressure from inflation and growth also requires the Fed to consider each policy decision carefully.
