News: Weak data sparks institutional buying, but hides three major risks.
Economic Data Catalyzes Surge
The US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index (98.6) released at 18:00 today fell short of expectations (98.7) and previous value (98.8), reinforcing recession expectations → USD weakens → funds flow into crypto markets for safe haven. ETH, as the settlement layer for stablecoins (USDC/PYUSD) and institutional preference, becomes the biggest beneficiary!
Regulatory Easing Ignites Institutional FOMO
SEC Policy Shift: New Chairman Withdraws 'ETH Securities Argument', Supports DeFi Innovation, Eliminates Regulatory Uncertainty.
(GENIUS Act) Implementation: Provides a legal framework for Ethereum stablecoins, accelerating entry of traditional financial institutions (e.g., Robinhood supports L2 US stock trading).
ETF Fund Frenzy: $1.17 billion flowed in June alone, Bitwise predicts total inflow could reach $10 billion by 2025, BlackRock CEO publicly endorses 'ETH as the cornerstone of future finance'.
On-chain Underflow: Main players harvest retail investors using good news.
Whale Activity: Address 0x1fc today withdrew 1,900 ETH (about $4.86 million) from Binance for staking, with a cost basis locked at $2,507, suspected of low-level accumulation.
Exchange Supply Depletion: ETH balance percentage drops to 13.5% (8-year low), whales continue to stockpile (adding 700,000 ETH since May).
Order Traps: A wall of 100,000 USDC sell orders appears in the 2576-2580 range, but below 2576.60 lies a false support of 52,576.60 USDC, the main force creates a 'breakout illusion'!
Technical Analysis: 2580 is the life-and-death line for bulls and bears; the market maker's smoke bomb is in place.
Key Watershed Showdown
2580-2600 High Pressure Zone: Daily golden ratio 61.8% resistance + Weekly MA200 (2,500) support; breaking through opens the 2600 channel, losing it will trigger a panic sell-off at 189.
Triangle Convergence Finale: 4-hour symmetrical triangle apex squeezes to 2,560-2,590, converging 20/50/100/200 EMA lines (2,541-2,497), countdown to a trend change begins.
Broker Control Evidence
Abnormal Transactions: Latest quotes show chaotic prices like 25.76.65/25.76.66, suspected of creating false liquidity through wash trading [citation:26].
Volume-Price Divergence: 30-minute trading volume surged by 128%, but RSI (56.2) did not break through synchronously, insufficient follow-up buying.
Order Book Reveals Truth: -0.09% shows shorts dominate, sell orders above 2580 are three times the buy orders.
Three Major Top Signals
RSI Overbought + Divergence: 4-hour RSI reaches 72, price hits new highs while momentum weakens.
Bollinger Bands Extremely Narrowed: Bandwidth compressed to 7.7%, after similar historical patterns there is an 80% probability of a 7% crash.
MVRV Warning of Overvaluation: Current value approaches overheating zone, strong demand for a pullback.
Tonight's Scenario: First lure buyers, then crash, 2520 is the endgame!
Scenario One: False Breakout to Lure Buyers (Probability 70%)
Before 21:30, rise to 2590: If US PPI data is below expectations, ETH might leverage a false breakout at 2580, attracting retail investors to chase 2600.
Market Maker Sells Hard: The sell wall at 2580-2600 triggered stop-loss orders, quickly crashing to 2520 (4-hour support level).
Ultimate Target 2520: coinciding with the weekly EMA convergence zone (2,514) and whale cost line (2,507), the main force is stationed here to accumulate long positions.
Scenario Two: True Breakout (Probability 30%)
Conditions: PPI data unexpectedly cold + US stock market opens with risk-averse funds flooding in, stabilize above 2600 with volume.
Target: 2,697 (Fibonacci R3) → 2,900, but beware of historical selling pressure zone at 2,745.
Iron Hawk Practical Strategy: Buy the dip below 2520 with eyes closed!
Title: ETH 'short squeeze' starts tonight! 2520 is the golden pit.
Core Logic: The market maker tests follow-up buying with a 30-point rise, but economic good news is unsustainable. When retail investors get excited chasing 2600, that’s when the shorts are ready to fire!
Operation Guide:
Short Position: Enter at current price 2575, stop-loss at 2595, target 2525 (risk-reward ratio 3:1)
Long Position: Place orders at 2521.50 (defending 2500), chase long after breaking 2580 (strict stop-loss at 2550)
Hedging: Buy put options at 2520 (strike price 2,500), sell call options at 2600.
Viral Quote:
"The market maker gives you 30 points, but they want to take back 300 points! A bull market is born in despair and buried in smoke screens."
"2600 is the meat grinder for retail investors, 2520 is the golden rain for hunters!"
Urgent Reminder: 21:30 US PPI data will determine fate! If data exceeds expectations positively, shorts need to withdraw immediately.
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