In the past few days, many people have privately messaged me: Is this wave about to take off?
Especially Bitcoin, it looks like it's going to start the second wave, but the market is feeling uncomfortable.
Let's discuss the rhythm and potential of a few focal coins.
Bitcoin: It has been held back for a long time, it will either surge or kneel.
From a technical perspective, #Bitcoin's previous surge began in April, breaking through 95,000 and reaching 112,000, and then oscillating back with decreasing volume, currently hovering around 109,000. What everyone is waiting for is whether the second wave can directly pull it to the psychological threshold of 140,000 dollars.
But the problem is obvious: the price has been suppressed by the downward trend line since June and has not been able to break through effectively. From the trading volume perspective, although it has risen above the short-term moving averages, there has been no significant increase in volume, as if the market is holding its breath – the catalyst has not appeared yet. The RSI is around 56, which is not strong and indicates that the main force has not really taken action.
If there is still no significant upward volume, it may not be a surge but rather a continuation of sideways movement or even a pullback. However, once it breaks through 120,000 dollars, it could open the path to 140,000, this position is not just a random call for bull market confirmation.
Ethereum: Has it stabilized key support, preparing to charge?
Looking at #Ethereum, this round of movement is quite healthy, having recently held the area around 2490 dollars – which is just the support of the 200-day moving average, a typical 'technical bullish defense line'. ETH is overall slightly stronger than BTC, especially with decent on-chain activity. If the market overall recovers, ETH is likely to be one of the first to run.
XRP: Is it finally going to turn around?
#XRP's recent performance is worth mentioning, it has finally broken through the moving averages that had suppressed it for months, crossing the 50, 100, and 200-day EMA together! This is not common in XRP's history and may indicate a strengthening of the mid-term structure.
Interestingly, XRP has also formed an ascending triangle structure, coupled with the current higher lows, and a moderately rising RSI (57). If it can increase volume upwards in the following moves, it may very likely target the historical strong resistance level of 2.50 dollars. However, caution is needed; if it approaches 2.50 without sufficient volume, it might still result in a false breakout that gets pushed back down. After all, XRP's old issue is that if it can't push up, it can easily be first harvested by the main force.
Solana: At a critical moment, it's fragile.
Lastly, let's talk about #Solana, its current state is quite awkward. From the daily chart, it has not stabilized above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, continuously hovering below, clearly lacking momentum. Every rebound meets selling pressure on its head, and it has formed a series of lower highs, which does not look healthy.
The trading volume is also not strong, and the RSI is stuck around 50, neither going up nor down. The buying pressure is weak, and the bears are also reluctant to push down hard. It's a typical weak oscillation structure. If the key support at 140-145 cannot hold, it may directly test the psychological level of 100 dollars, at which point many believers may get shaken out.
However, to be fair, if it really goes below 100 dollars, it might be an opportunity for some long-term players waiting to buy the dip. But the short-term game carries significant risks.
Written at the end
Overall, the most typical state of the market right now is 'waiting' – waiting for the second wave, for catalysts, and for the main force to return.
BTC has the hope of establishing a main rising wave to 140,000 dollars, but for it to really take off, it needs volume, rhythm, and consensus; ETH and XRP are performing well, each holding key points, gathering strength; while SOL is like a player hovering on the edge, easily falling into the adjustment zone if not careful.
Follow me to continue tracking the market's next moves. Don't hesitate when the opportunity arises.
