Yields rise — with or without tariffs

Trump’s tariff noise is back — and so is the 10Y yield at 4.40%.

That’s just ~20 bps below the recent highs seen when he paused tariffs for 90 days.

But the key shift?

Yields are climbing regardless of trade war headlines.

The market is now pricing in one dominant factor:

Exploding deficit spending is driving long-term rates.