#TrumpTariffs President Trump's tariffs aim to protect American interests, but they have sparked controversy and uncertainty in the global economy. Here's a breakdown of the tariffs and their potential impact:
*Tariff Details*
- *Baseline Tariff*: 10% on US imports from all countries
- *Country-Specific Tariffs*:
- *Canada and Mexico*: 25% tariffs on imports
- *China*: 125% tariffs on imports, with a 90-day pause on escalating tariffs
- *European Union*: 20% "reciprocal" tariffs on imports
*Economic Impact*
- *Revenue*: Trump's tariffs could raise $156.2 billion in federal tax revenues in 2025, making them the largest tax hike since 1993
- *GDP*: The tariffs could reduce long-run US GDP by 0.8-1.3%, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries exacerbating the impact
- *Inflation*: Tariffs could boost Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by 1-1.5%, leading to higher inflation
- *Trade Relations*: The tariffs have triggered retaliatory measures from countries like Canada, China, and the EU, potentially upending traditional trading relations
*Potential Consequences*
- *Global Recession*: J.P. Morgan Research estimates a 40% risk of a global recession due to US trade policy
- *Job Losses*: The tariffs could lead to job losses, particularly in industries affected by retaliatory measures
- *Price Increases*: Tariffs could result in higher prices for consumers, particularly for goods imported from countries with high tariffs ¹ ²