TON oversold rebound opportunity! FOMO drives short-term long positions, seize the bear market bottom reversal signal
The current TON price is 2.731 USDT, which is in the oversold area (RSI 25.37), down 3.77% in 24 hours, but the order book shows that the short-distance buy orders are significantly dominant (buy pressure ratio 1.48), and it may rebound to the 2.78 resistance level in the short term. It is recommended to go long aggressively: enter at 2.731, stop loss at 2.679, target at 2.80, and profit and loss ratio at 1.33. Risk: The overall bear market trend has not changed. If it falls below the 2.679 support or macro negatives, stop loss must be stopped immediately.
Technical Analysis
• Price Status: Bollinger Band position 6.35% (near the lower track 2.724), suggesting the possibility of an oversold rebound; MA200 deviation -3.53% (price 2.731 is lower than MA200 2.831), showing weakness but too large deviation; holding cost deviation -3.24% (lower than 2.822), increasing the attractiveness of bottom-fishing.
• Market Strength: 24-hour volume ratio 0.53 (lower than the average), shrinking volume decline indicates weakening selling pressure; open interest 24 hours down 60.29%, net capital outflow continues, but smart money long-short ratio turns long (1.56→1.60). No major news, market sentiment is low but technically oversold.
• Key positions: support 2.679 (buy order concentration area, value 314k USDT), resistance 2.783 (sell order 331k USDT); the total value of short-distance buy orders of 508k USDT far exceeds the sell orders of 243k, and the buying pressure is strong; the liquidity gap is at 2.75-2.78, which is easy to trigger a rapid rebound.
Market cycle analysis
Currently in the middle of the bear market, the price continues to fall (down 6.22% in 7 days), but the oversold indicator and buying pressure suggest short-term bottom shocks, which may transition to the rebound stage.
Trading strategy
• Entry point: 2.731 (current price, oversold rebound starting point)
• Stop loss point: 2.679 (invalid if the key support is broken)
• Target position: 2.80 (upper edge of the resistance zone, profit and loss ratio 1.33)
• Position control: single risk ≤ 2% of total funds, avoid low liquidity periods (such as early Asian trading).
Risk Warning
• Market risk: The bear market trend continues (down 14.14% in 30 days), and the low funding rate of 0.00005 shows that the bulls lack momentum.
• Strategy failure: If the price falls below 2.679 or there is a sudden macro event (such as regulatory news), you need to close the position and re-evaluate.
• Operational attention: strictly stop loss and avoid chasing up.
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